The hot and breezy weather will continue for Monday, with a gusty northwest flow continuing to bring in the hot dry weather from the dry season over the tropical north. Some locations recording temperatures in the low to mid 30s, up to 12-15C above normal. That was well forecast last week by the data.

Temperature Anomalies - Saturday July 31st 2021.

July records tumbled in many locations in southern QLD and northern NSW. Bourke in NSW smashed the July record by 2.4C!! Cooler air is coming.

We will see the pattern break down over the coming week, and with that, some much needed rainfall for southern inland areas and that could extend into the central parts of QLD Tuesday into Wednesday as a colder drier shift moves north from NSW.

Rainfall looks to be mainly light and patchy, but it will be a sign of the pattern shifting before our eyes this week. The upper high and heat bubble that has been over much of the north and east will now be replaced by a trough moving north.

From there, we do have more high pressure moving in, however the upper heights are starting to come down from the above average levels from the past 4 weeks. So even though it may be dry still for the period following the cooler change, there will be more potential for moisture to be lifted over northern Australia by upper troughs, that won't be weakened by the strong belt of high pressure.

So we will continue to watch the upcoming mid month outlook, as that appears to be the time that weather shifts nationally. The weather also favouring above average moisture values across the north of the nation from next weekend, early build up conditions will be developing in the coming weeks. Though with medium term weather data you always have to factor in that systems will come and go from charts.

Lets have a look at modelling

00z GFS Surface Pressure Pattern next 16 days

Rainfall breaks out through Monday afternoon over SA and VIC before increasing over NSW and southern QLD Monday night into Tuesday. Moderate rainfall is possible in states and for QLD there will be a narrow band that is established over the southern inland that may see some areas receive 10-20mm. The best of it generally falling on and west of the divide in southern QLD during Monday night and then contracting north through the state during Tuesday before lifting out or evaporating, whatever comes first. A cold and gusty southwest flow will pass over SA and VIC first on Monday afternoon and then NSW and QLD during Tuesday afternoon and the drier and colder air moving through to inland QLD Wednesday bringing a shift to seasonal weather. The weather will clear out through inland from Wednesday and dry weather to continue over the inland but showers may begin to develop in easterly winds from the weekend into early next week.

00z GFS Rainfall for the next 10 days

Rainfall largely confined to this first part of the week coming with likely to be minimal rainfall from mid week over inland areas. It may actually be dry statewide for about 4-5 days with the high ridging in and bringing about stable air. If easterly winds develop this weekend then showers will return for coastal areas north of Hervey Bay. Otherwise we will be watching the moisture distribution over northern Australia.

00z GFS Precipitable Water Anomalies next 16 days

Precipitable Water Values paint the picture of that moisture surging southeast ahead of the front coming in tomorrow and Tuesday. The cloud expected to rapidly thicken over the inland of NSW and QLD later Monday with rain areas developing later in the day over the western inland and reach the GDR overnight into Tuesday. The rainfall then contracting north through the state during Tuesday and clearing out Wednesday. Then dry air takes over, however we watch the easterly winds developing and the moisture over the tropics building in line with a shift in the upper patterns, supporting more humidity to build over northern Australia. That will eventually be brought south in the coming weeks.

00z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 10 days

The Euro is very similar to the GFS over the coming week, with the bulk of the wet weather over the next 48hrs, then drier weather moving in once again with high pressure ridging over. We then see whether we can get easterly winds to return with moisture building over northern Australia triggering some showers for coastal areas up north and showers developing for coastal areas north of Hervey Bay. That may take shape from the weekend with mainly light falls, but the moisture will be allowed to deepen a tad over inland areas if the pattern persists.

00z Euro Rainfall for the coming 10 days

Rainfall in line with most global models, the bulk falling in the coming 2 days, then drying out over the inland really from mid week as winds turn drier westerly and ease. The weekend looks to be dry statewide as we get the high sitting over the eastern inland but now the Euro, like GFS is bringing back frontal weather for early next week, which would throw a delay in the easterly winds returning, however I am not adjusting my forecasts just yet on this shift in guidance just yet.

00z Euro Precipitable Water Values next 10 days

As per the GFS there is a pattern flip occurring in the outlook period, but it seems like it is stuttering along with another belt of westerly winds next week possible before we see stronger high pressure coming in from the west towards the second week of August. But more details on the medium term forecasting can be found at the top of the blog front page.

Rainfall for the next 10 days

Rainfall mainly for the next 48hrs over inland areas and I am keeping the rainfall lighter than what some models are showing, and that is due to the uncertainty around where the band of rain develops. The showery weather along the east coast, may be a little heavier than what some models are showing and again, this forecast will be adjusted to follow any trend, but it is a low confidence forecast for now. The showery weather IF it develops will be for the weekend and into early next week IF the westerly wind belt does not come to spoil the party.

More weather details to come Monday Morning

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