QLD - HEAVY RAINFALL FOR THE NORTH - SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE SOUTHEAST. STORMS INLAND

The wet end to Summer continues with severe weather issues over the north with a tropical feature building and over the southeast with a coastal trough driving torrential rainfall and destructive flash flooding. The weather also largely unchanged for inland areas with afternoon thunderstorms near a weakening upper low producing severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding.


There is a lot on the board so lets take a look at when we see conditions begin to ease for those hardest hit over the south and southeast.

FOREACST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is expected to peak this evening and through Friday morning before slowly easing over the southeast with severe flash flooding possible for near Rainbow Beach through to Port Macquarie with the heavy rainfall shield moving through. Some areas could see 500mm in 24hrs, as is the potential mix of ingredients driving heavy rainfall in place. Up north a tropical low near the Cape York region could drive heavy rainfall and gusty winds over the coming days with a riverine flood risk there as the monsoon deepens. The storms over the inland will continue tomorrow with a flash flood risk but the risk will contract eastwards as the trough moves away and weakens. Showers will continue for the east coast with onshore winds and another trough approaching later next week may drive showers and thunderstorms this time next week but provide a drier push of air over southern and eastern areas of the state.

Thunderstorm Forecast Friday

A very high chance of thunderstorms tonight and again tomorrow with severe flash flooding likely over the southeast districts will slowly begin to ease tomorrow evening. The storm risk will continue over inland areas but more widespread during the peak of the day time heating process with heavy falls leading to flash flooding possible. Thunderstorms also possible over the tropics, more scattered and gusty near a tropical low.

Flash Flood Risk Friday

Flash flooding remains a very high concern and the warning is unchanged for the southeast of the state with dangerous and life threatening flash flooding possible. Flash flooding will continue to be a risk over a broad area of the inland. Flash flood risks increasing over the Cape York region with a tropical low nearby.

Tropical Cyclone Watch - Next few days.

There is a weak tropical low over the Cape York region and should remain at that strength for the period being disorganised and close to land but will designate a moderate risk zone due to other tropical mischief in the region.

DATA - Refer to video for more information


GFS 00Z - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

The pressure pattern remains dynamic and the main areas that I will repeat need pointing out. The potential cyclone development over northern Australia, especially the feature off Darwin carries some high concern of severe weather. The east coast still expected to see significant rainfall with large scale risk of flooding continuing overnight and through Friday before easing. Severe storm outbreak is of some concern over the southeast inland from Sunday through Tuesday with further flash flood risks possible. The west is hot and dry with high fire dangers but conditions may begin to cool from mid week with the pattern mobilising a little more. Overall the weather for SA is dry, but coastal areas and some Ag areas may see some light and patchy rainfall with limited moisture via thunderstorms. Otherwise central areas remain dry and warm to hot. But watch the moisture over the north and northeast.

GFS 00Z - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks

Very high moisture levels over the nation's north and east is leading to widespread heavy rainfall and flooding potential, with severe thunderstorms featuring for many areas as well. The west and central areas seeing mainly dry air for the period, but this looks to get overridden by the movement of the tropical moisture from northern Australia moving south over the next 2 weeks.

GFS 00Z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for further information

CMC 00Z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for further information

GFS 00Z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to video for further information

A closer look in - rainfall numbers will begin to ease along the east coast over the coming days but remain elevated, but not as high as what we have seen. Numbers over the far north will move around in relation to the tropical systems and the weather over the inland may dry out for the short term but the moisture may return in the medium term via the jet stream pulling moisture from WA.

More weather coming up from 8am EDT

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