QLD - HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT STILL ON TRACK WITH RAIN APPROACHING TONIGHT, INCREASING LATE WEEK.

OVERVIEW

Everything is still on track for the rainfall event to unfold in the days ahead, we can see thick cloud over western areas of the state and back into the NT. The high impact Winter rain event is not too far away.


Most points of the state should see rainfall bar the very far southwest of the Channel Country at this time. But the pattern is complex, and more changes can be expected to the forecast evolution and scale of this system.


SHORT TERM

The areas of mainly light rain and thick cloud over the NT will continue to move east and southeast into the state from tomorrow and then increase in coverage from Thursday with moderate to heavy rainfall developing on and north of a trough laying across Central QLD from Friday into the weekend and reaching coastal areas from Saturday.


This event will bring the risk of severe with heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding and riverine flooding the main issues at this time. The location under risk is broad but this will likely be refined as we move through the next day or so.


Clearance of the rain event over the state should commence from the weekend and clear the coast early next week with much of next week looking and feeling pretty good with a high building back in and conditions back to relatively seasonal weather.


LONG TERM

The SAM is the key interest at the moment, we are likely to see an enormous rainfall event from the positive phase that is underway and that is expected to turn back towards neutral values next week. Once that happens, the westerly wind regime will begin to shift northwards, knocking the high-pressure belt further north and this meaning that much of the inland dries and the rainfall returns to areas over the southeast and southwest.


Some chance that the moisture may increase over the Indian Ocean closer to Australia by the latter part of next week with cold fronts emerging over WA look to be stronger with moisture meeting these fronts, lifting rainfall chances.


AREAS TO WATCH

Indian Ocean for moisture intrusion over the eastern waters and this is expected to sweep into cold fronts. Timing of the fronts in relation to the moisture content will dictate the terms of rainfall coverage over the southwest and west of the nation.


The SAM is also likely to turn back towards negative values throughout the second week of July and more aggressive Winter weather may return to Southern Australia and maybe some drier and more seasonal weather resuming over northern and eastern Australia.


WEATHER VIDEO PM - TUESDAY 28TH JUNE 2022

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Extensive rain is forecast to develop from Thursday over the western and central inland begin to increase across the southeast and eastern coastal areas from Friday and into the weekend, while the rain starts to lift out of the western and central interior through the weekend. The process of the rainfall moving from west to east is expected to be relatively slow and this is going to assist in the emergence of those higher rainfall totals for many of you from the northwest through central inland areas along the coast from about Mackay southwards. The far southwest could see little rainfall. By the time we get to next week, the bulk of the rainfall moves offshore the coast and a drier and more stable airmass is likely to drop into the eastern inland leading to more seasonal conditions and drier weather that is typical for the traditional drier season for the state.

Heavy falls over the central and coastal areas south of about Sarina with some falls exceeding 100mm for the weekend and into early next week, which is about decile 8 in terms of rainfall events for this time of year. A very tight rainfall gradient exists south and west of the trough laying over the state so if you are south of the main rain band, you will see less than 10mm more broadly and dry over the far southwest.

The rainfall is highly anomalous and snakes back through the NT with that leading to a decile 9 rainfall event with excessive falls possible with thunderstorms for this time of year.

SEVERE WEATHER RISK QUEENSLAND

The severe weather issues are expected to evolve from Friday with a trough lined up from Boulia through Tambo to Brisbane, areas along and to the north of this trough expected to see heavy rainfall with flash flooding the biggest concern. Depending on rainfall quantities, the rainfall could be supportive for riverine flooding as well. Along the coast the risk develops from the weekend as the trough stands up and moves through, heaviest impacts are likely around Mackay to Hervey Bay at this time but could creep down into the SE Inland. Flash flooding more of concern here with rainfall rates of 100mm/hr likely to feature along the trough. The weather clears the inland over the weekend and the coastal areas from Monday.

Frost Risk Forecast Wednesday Morning

The frost will feature once again in a similar spread throughout the state during Wednesday morning with severe frosts reserved south of the border through NSW and into VIC. More humid and cloudier weather moving in from Thursday will end the frost risk for about a week at this time.

MEDIUM TERM

July 6th - July 13th, 2022

Rainfall Anomalies

Rainfall anomalies are starting to wind down over the eastern seaboard and more generally the rest of the nation is looking at seasonal falls for now with a return to a more typical Winter pattern with westerly winds emerging over the south of the country with fronts embedded in that flow.

Temperature Anomalies

Cooler bias continues to the west and northwest and maybe over the north with cloud lurking and this suppressing temperatures. A great indication of what will occur over the Springtime through QLD and NSW and possibly over the interior as well. For now, there is a warmer bias in NSW and southern QLD with the northwest flow developing.

DATA - Refer to video for more information and the model comparison and context about all the forecast products you see from me.


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to the video up above to find more details on the weather data being presented tonight. There is a pattern flip in the forecast as well for southern and western Australia following the severe weather impacts.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks

Moisture has already deepened over northern Australia as advertised with that forecast to spread south and southeast into the upper-level trough and low over VIC and NSW with rainfall numbers coming up over the southeast and east of the nation. Rainfall is forecast to increase this weekend before conditions clear. The pattern flips and we see the frontal weather and the moisture streams into these fronts from the Indian Ocean thanks to the upper-level northwest winds, with each of those having an increased chance of spreading larger cloud bands through the nation.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

A closer look in - rainfall numbers are increasing a little for the interior and along the coast as the latest iteration of the GFS suggests that the rain band moves slower through the state, with it bringing the threat of flooding to parts of the coast. All of this clears by early next week and then it does look dry for a while.

More coming up from 8pm EST with a look at the models and rainfall

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