QLD - HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES FOR THE FNQ REGION AND INCREASING SHOWERS FOR PARTS OF THE EAST.

The welcome late season rainfall for the FNQ coast continues and spill over from the trough into Cape York is also bringing some widespread falls as well. The welcome falls in line with seasonal averages with the heavy falls expected to continue near the trough and thanks to those trade winds feeding the trough.


For the remainder of the state, mostly dry for a while into the weekend with a weak trough inland triggering some scattered showers and thunderstorms but the coverage is not as widespread as previous weeks.


Along the coast, a few showers to continue and these could pick up in coverage next week as the flow turns more unstable easterly. A new surge of southerly winds with a weak trough running up the NSW coast will stall out over the SE of QLD and combine with the easterly winds to produce showers and thunderstorms.


That activity may stay in place for a place next week with the heaviest of the falls along the extreme coastal fringe.


Confidence in the movement of weather patterns next week will remain very low confidence with some models indicating the chance of showers and storms increasing with a trough deepening, other models saying we could have a cloud band tracking through the interior of the nation and bringing patchy falls over the state later next week.


So will have to watch trends.

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall remains heaviest over the northern tropics where a trough remains stationary and the trade winds continue to feed the trough so more widespread showers/areas of rain and thunderstorms to continue for the remainder of the week. Some falls could lead to local flooding. Over the remainder of the east coast, the further south you go through the state, the less widespread and frequent the showers should be and how far inland they do penetrate. The inland will see isolated showers and storms through the week, maybe increasing in coverage on the weekend before decreasing again next week. Low confidence remains in the forecast mid to late next week with moisture increasing over the region from the northwest and west with the jet stream sinking south over the nation and pulling moisture out of the tropics and spreading it from northwest to southeast across the nation. How that looks remains to be seen. So watch this space.

Thunderstorm Forecast Wednesday

Thunderstorms over the north of the state will continue near and to the north of a trough with the trough remaining stationary through the base of Cape York and extending through the Gulf of Carpentaria into a tropical low north of Maningrida in the NT. Thunderstorms could be gusty.

DATA - Refer to the video for more information about the short and medium term breakdown details. Really important to gain context to the charts and forecasts here!


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

The pattern as outlined this morning and as I have touched on in recent days, the confidence beyond about Sunday is quite low as the pattern continues to respond to the climate drivers. The SAM has been very hard to pin down. What was looking like a negative phase of the SAM for next week is now turning positive and therefore the models are playing catch up and adjusting from run to run, hence your forecasts keep changing erratically. That will continue. The weather over the north a little more settled into a routine, which is wet with late season heavy falls and severe storms. That moisture may creep southwards through the nation and help to prop up the humidity and rainfall levels into the medium and longer term. So that is something to watch. Over the west, watch the Indian Ocean, the first widespread falls of the seasonal shift may be approaching next week and consequently may move across the remainder of the south of Australia into the end of the month. East coast areas should remain seasonal with warm weather but the rainfall may increase in coverage if the positive SAM strengthens. There is a large scale severe weather event on the GFS this evening that I talk through in greater detail in the video at the top of the page.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks

Moisture values remain higher than normal for the southern and southeast inland but that should be eroded during the next few days. The drier airmass over the south of the nation will spread northwards over the weekend, though temperatures will remain above the average. Northern tropics under above average moisture values through the coming week to two weeks with an approaching MJO. That MJO may set up a large moisture in feed across the country as I have outlined in recent days, setting up a rain band from WA, through Central Australia and if the fast flow pattern allows, through to the southeast inland.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for further details and model context

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for further details and model context

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to video for further details and model context

A closer look in - this forecast is volatile and will change. So be aware of that, anything beyond 5 days is poor confidence.

More in the models and rainfall wrap coming up after 9pm EDT tonight to see what is lurking out in the medium term, are we seeing the Autumn Break becoming a fixture on all data or is it just a GFS thing!?!



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