A moist onshore easterly flow has developed as high pressure moved through to the east over the weekend. It is feeling much different over the east coast with showers about and cooler and more humid airmass. The cloud cover has extended inland somewhat today.
Moisture starting to increase along the coast of QLD today, the cloud has developed across parts of the FNQ coast with showers about. Cloud is increasing along the NSW coast and that is expected to move north tonight and tomorrow with showers developing this week as the winds veer more easterly.
The moisture is expected to continue for the east coast with showers likely most days this week, probably thinning out a bit during mid week before returning later in the week with another burst of easterly winds as high pressure moves in from the west.
Over the inland, it is looking very warm to hot once again mid week, with a northwest flow starting to bring the warmer from the central interior into the eastern interior. A front will pass through to the south of QLD with showers staying along the NSW border.
The temperatures are set to rise well above normal this week for inland areas with the heat combining with moisture to bring up heat levels for the eastern and southern inland.
Later this week another upper trough may emerge over the southern or eastern inland which could combine with onshore winds to produce scattered showers and a few storms over the southern and central inland but the consensus on this is not quite clear.
Next week the weather is expected to be dominated by the onshore winds, humidity building and where the low pressure systems/troughs are located, there is a bias towards rainfall developing over the eastern third of the nation on current guidance.
You can see more on the medium term forecast at the top of the blog page.
00Z GFS Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 16 days
Pressure pattern has not changed that much for the coming week as we last looked on Friday, the pattern dominated by high pressure for the first part of the week over in the southeast with brighter skies and warmer than average temperatures. The east coast will see showers developing with onshore winds continuing. The showers are expected to move up the NSW and QLD coasts during the early part of this week. Moisture from that easterly flow will then be drawn southwest over inland NSW ahead of the cold front that will see rainfall increase for southern and southeast inland parts of NSW. The moisture will likely stay north of VIC but there will likely still be a band of showers move through state. The weather dries out for the southeast states by the end of the week with a new high moving in. That will clear VIC but once again an easterly change for the coast will see showers return for the east coast of QLD and NSW. You can see a trough that gets stuck over parts of NSW and QLD by this weekend coming with moisture also pooling over the region with a few showers and storms developing for the inland parts of both states. The weather likely to become wetter and more humid over the eastern states next week with more rainfall potential.
00z GFS Rainfall for the coming 16 days
Rainfall expected on the east coast from tomorrow through the remainder of the week, though the coverage thinning out a little. The inland areas seeing the most rainfall mid week with a system coming in from SA that will link up with moisture via the northeast to easterly winds that are developing around the high pressure system. That may bring a decent burst of rainfall for southern inland NSW. Then the inland dries out during later this week, however with the moisture lingering through the atmosphere, there may be some showers redevelop over the eastern inland of QLD and NSW before more widespread rainfall develops as a low pressure trough sets up over the east of the nation.
00z GFS Precipitable Water Values and Anomalies next 16 days
The PW Values and anomalies paint that picture of moisture overrunning the drier airmass through the outlook period and the anomalies show you were the moisture is streaming in from. The moisture will ultimately be picked up by low pressure but pinning down exactly where the low pressure sets up is unclear, however I will say since Friday, there has been a shift to the eastern and southeast of Australia for the moisture to be lifted into areas of rainfall. So a little more consistency in the data.
00z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 10 days
Reasonable agreement in the modelling tonight for this week, a large high moving east, showers for the east coast in onshore winds, the southeast dries out with a northeast to northerly flow. Then a front escaping the southwest of the nation with a moisture plume on it's eastern and northern flank. That will send the winds into the northwest over the southeast and eastern inland with a run of warmer days, hot over the eastern inland. The weather on the east coast will ease for a period as the front rolls through. A new ridge will develop from later this week in the wake of the front and the weather we have right now, will be in force for next weekend. There is evidence of an upper trough also over eastern areas of Australia and an approaching trough near SA at the end of the period which signals the start of the inland rainfall potential moving from the short term into the medium term.
00z Euro Rainfall for the coming 10 days.
Rainfall is expected to remain mainly coastal for the coming 10 days if you believe the Euro tonight, but the data is not quite right, and I will stick with the GFS solution, so expect more moisture to be in the region and an upper trough at this stage, across the weekend triggering showers throughout the southern and eastern portions of the state.
00z Euro Precipitable Water Values next 10 days
PW Values also in relative good agreement this evening for the week ahead with light to moderate rainfall with a front passing through the southeast during mid week. There might be a break in the showers along the NSW or QLD coast later this week but it will return by the weekend with some further moderate to heavy falls along parts of the coast. The moisture surge coming through the easterly winds during the early part of the following week could be quite deep and that may be drawn through the inland via a trough that is looking like it will set up across SA and maybe central Australia.
Rainfall for the next 10 days
Rainfall looks fairly lean for inland areas for now, that is expected under the pattern flip that was forecast weeks ago. The rainfall as I alluded to on Friday will likely fill in the gaps over western parts of NSW and QLD and maybe through northern SA just outside of this period thanks to a trough over SA drawing in deep moisture from the northeast and north. For now the most productive weather is expected along the east coast in onshore winds, heaviest of FNQ. There could be some showers over the northern tropics from later this weekend into next week.
More weather coming up this week including a climate outlook for September, the severe weather seasonal outlook for 2021/22 and tropical weather outlook for the wet season 2021/22. All have major impacts on the seasons ahead.