QLD - HEATING UP INLAND, THE EAST COAST LOOKING TO TURN SHOWERY

The weather is expected to turn showery along the east coast, with deep layer of moisture starting to move through north and east of Australia with an easterly wave passing well north, the southern branch of that may see moisture seep south, bringing an uptick in the number of showers next week for FNQ.


Elsewhere the showers may begin to develop for the east coast, mainly north of Hervey Bay with moderate falls possible for some locations.


The weather over the inland becoming warm to hot with a westerly wind developing through mid week into later this week. That will be pushed out by a change later next week, but the humidity and heat will become stuck along the boundary next weekend.


The hot signals continue for Wednesday and Thursday ahead of that frontal weather moving northeast and east through the nation


Temperature anomalies Wednesday

Temperature Anomalies Thursday

That may set up an area of interest for where the moisture and instability combine to produce inland rainfall over the NT or QLD. So that will be an area to watch.


Lets have a look at modelling


00Z GFS Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 16 days

Modelling is still looking very similar to this morning with a strong set of fronts coming through the southwest, passing through to the east during mid week. Ahead of that, warm and sunny with gusty northwest winds developing nd we will feel that as the biggest impact from this event. Then we have that cooler shift Thursday over the southern inland,. The medium term, remains quiet for now but the moisture is building dramatically through the middle and latter parts of August.

00z GFS Rainfall for the coming 16 days

Rainfall unchanged for most areas from this morning, but the falls have picked up a tad through the southeast of SA and over VIC in some of the data sets. Maybe some of that could creep over the NSW border into southern QLD with local thunderstorms on the wind shift. Otherwise the showers will develop along the coast and could turn heavy at times between Cairns and Cardwell and lighter falls elsewhere.

00z GFS Precipitable Water Anomalies next 16 days

The PW values are becoming drier over the southeast and eastern inland but increasing and elevating over the west coast with frontal weather moving in. Another surge of moisture moving through the northwest flow connected to the jet stream bringing a band of rainfall there with a cold front. That front will spread some of that moisture eastwards mid week. Moisture over the east coast will continue to build with onshore winds developing and building that humid profile in the lower levels. That will bring back showers for the east but seed the atmosphere ahead of the front mid week, resulting in a broad band of rain and thunderstorms. In the medium term we have a lot of moisture across vast areas of the nation, but as I keep saying from run to run, it will translate into rainfall in WA, then move that rainfall into QLD, then disappear and repeat. So no signal from the models that they have a clue at this time.

00z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 10 days

The Euro somewhat similar to the GFS this evening, though not as robust in the rainfall spread as per GFS tonight in the lead system coming in from WA mid week over the southeast but the signal is still the same with very warm weather developing ahead of the front early next week, with sunny skies. The east will see a southeast to easterly wind shift as the high ridges in this weekend into next week with showers developing, but light falls expected. That moisture then moves through the northeast flow over NSW into VIC and increases the chance of showers and storms mid week. The moisture does not quite make it into SA but a few showers with lighter falls than GFS likely under the Euro solution. The medium term throws up a low with deepening moisture over WA in the medium term and moisture increasing over the eastern inland with a few showers and thunderstorms for QLD. But this will again change

00z Euro Rainfall for the coming 10 days

Rainfall still a bit hard to pin down on the Euro, with the model showing lighter falls than this morning for the southeast. The east coast still likely to see light falls from Sunday but more likely Monday as onshore winds return. Then we have the most widespread rainfall for the southeast and east with a cold front passing through during Wednesday. The weather then clears rapidly by this time next week with a new high moving in for the southeast inland, the coast may see the showers return in easterly winds and moisture increases over the inland.

00z Euro Precipitable Water Values next 10 days

The moisture is expected to deepen through WA this weekend with a front approaching, but at the same time the moisture over the eastern inland dries out leading to clearer skies this weekend. Along the east coast, the moisture will return from Sunday with easterly winds developing. That modest moisture supply then drawn into the eastern inland with a front helping to pull that south and southeast. Another large plume of moisture sweeps over the NT and QLD then into northern WA next week which will bring the first hints of build up for the north. That moisture likely to pool and then be utilised as some stage, SOMEWHERE, over the inland portions of the nation.

Rainfall for the next 10 days

Dry weather for most of the period for the inland at this stage, but it is a low confidence forecast and there are murmurings of rainfall potential out in the coming 10 days so watch this space. The showers along the east coast will be mainly light south of Cardwell. Between Cairns and Cardwell, showers will be moderate to heavy at times early in the week and again later in the week. The weather more humid this week than the previous 8 weeks along the coast.

The weekend is here and I will have another national weather update and a look at the moisture watch once again through the medium term.

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