Signals of spring in the air in recent days with warmer weather the past few days and storms through NSW.

The weather is expected to cool down with that boundary over the south working north today and that will bring down temperatures over the inland today and Friday.

The boundary will stall out over the inland during the weekend, likely near the NSW border with easterly winds returning and feeding the trough but isolated showers expected inland, more scattered along the coast with light falls thanks to the ridge being a little too close.

The boundary is largely unchanged in modelling this morning from last night, the high pressure ridge will keep the showers more isolated during the coming weekend over inland areas. Scattered showers may be more numerous along the southeast surge through the weekend.

Next week the low confidence forecast continues with the modelling all over the place still, overnight some models brought back a large scale system, this morning...

Lets look at modelling

12Z GFS Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 16 days

The pressure pattern relaxes throughout the nation today, with the vigorous flow passing east with the weather trending drier for most areas. A little rain and a thunderstorm possible about the boundary in NSW is all the rainfall expected across inland Australia today. Coastal areas may see showers today over SA, VIC and TAS but the weather largely fine elsewhere. The showers clear the southeast of the nation during the weekend but return to the east coast this weekend into next week with high pressure moving through. A weak front may develop over southeast parts of the nation during Monday sending a surge of drier air through the eastern inland, that is the major change in modelling in recent days, but again will keep watching that. Medium term, as you can see there are systems moving in from the west and north. We have got moisture over the inland and up north still. The chart this morning look more spring like.

12z GFS Rainfall for the coming 16 days

Not much to come during this next 7 days but we could see rain developing from later next week into the weekend with an upper trough passing through and moisture floating about. Overnight the modelling had widespread rainfall coming through next weekend and moderate falls for large areas of the southeast and east. This morning, not as much in the first week but the last week of August does look more active as expected with the pattern flip occurring first drying out the nation and then rain comes back to finish the month and to start September.

12z GFS Precipitable Water Anomalies next 16 days

The PW anomalies are largely unchanged from last night, though the modelling suggests more dry air coming through with the front early next week which could delay the moisture returning to southern areas of the nation. Note the weekend system that passes well south of the nation just cannot pull the moisture in over WA south, but rather leaves it there for later in the week. Medium term the moisture returns over the north and east and the pool of moisture that is left over WA eventually gets picked up by a stronger system moving out of WA.

12z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 10 days

A quiet week nationally, probably the most quiet it has been in months with high pressure sinking further south as expected by mid month allowing the pattern to reset and warm up over the north and west. Moisture building up over the north allows the weather to turn more unsettled through the back half of August. A system later next week could see showers and storms increase over the south and east of the nation, but it keeps chopping and changing so expect this to change next run this afternoon.

12z Euro Rainfall for the coming 10 days

Dry weather for much of the inland for the coming 7 days, but I think after that time the weather is very low confidence, seeing a little more agreement that the dry air is surging north behind a front that will pass through the southeast on Monday with light showers, that was expected to be in the Tasman Sea but in recent days the models have adjusted west, seeing the moisture dam over the northern tropics. But eventually the warmer and humid air will descend southwards for the back half of August lifting rainfall chances.

12z Euro Precipitable Water Values next 10 days

Not much to work with away from the east coast and where the boundary sets up in the east this weekend, where showers will fall. Otherwise it is a dry airmass for many with a high pressure belt over the nation. We can see the moisture increasing over the nation from the end of the run and low pressure developing over southern and eastern Australia, helping showers and storms return and moisture pooling over the northwest.

Rainfall for the next 10 days

The weather settling down over the south with a lighter wind regime today, still warm and dry weather as new high pressure comes in, knocking out any rainfall coming in via the trough on Friday. Showers return to the coast this weekend with light falls, tending more moderate over the FNQ coast which may be the wettest part of the nation in the coming days. There may be a few showers over the northern parts of the nation later next week.

Will have a look at the medium term once again this morning as the weather is relatively calm for the next week, so when does the pattern snap back? And another look at the severe weather season, focusing on the risk of fire danger this season.

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