QLD - HEADS UP SEVERE STORM OUTBREAK SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK

The trough which is bringing another round of strong to severe storms today is in the process of lifting out and weakening, the main axis point has now moved over the Coral Sea, the air unstable again for more thunderstorms today.


We will see some areas get a reprieve during the coming weekend, but another round of severe storms is likely next week from Monday through Tuesday at this stage.


Severe Thunderstorm Risk - Monday 25th of October

% chance of severe thunderstorms occurring within 30km of a given point.

Thunderstorms are likely to increase once again on Monday with a trough anchored over the southeast inland of QLD extending back into Central QLD. All modes of severe weather possible at this time. Determining giant hail and tornado risk comes when we get closer to the day.

Severe Thunderstorm Risk - Tuesday 26th of October

% chance of severe thunderstorms occurring within 30km of a given point.

Thunderstorms likely peaking in coverage on Tuesday with severe thunderstorm risk increasing over the southeast inland and through to central inland areas of QLD. All modes of severe weather possible.

DATA

Convective Available Potential Energy

The CAPE values remain robust during today and tomorrow about coastal areas, so scattered showers, with local thunderstorms, some severe today and tomorrow but the dynamic support aloft is waning so the intensity of storms will begin to ease. Next week the next parcel of unstable air can be seen moving in from Monday and Tuesday, with values up to 1500j/kg over the southeast and central inland of QLD leading to more robust thunderstorm activity. At this time all modes of severe weather will be supported in this environment.

Precipitable Water Anomalies

The moisture content of the atmosphere is above average next week leading to deeper convection and more surface based thunderstorms, leading to a higher risk of severe weather. Thunderstorms will turn numerous mainly Monday through Wednesday

Simulated Radar Monday afternoon into Tuesday.

Note the reflectivity up 44dbz over parts of Central QLD, which being 4-5 days out, is very robust. They are discrete cells which leads to the interpretation of severe weather risks with thunderstorms next week. We will know more about the chance of supercell thunderstorms by Sunday when we get closer to real time data analysis.

Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall

Note the coverage of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms next week with heavy falls possible. The atmosphere more supportive of heavier rainfall than what we have seen in this last batch of thunderstorms.

More details to come.

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