QLD - HARVEST OUTLOOK

Lets get straight into it for the next 6 weeks, it is going to be a very disruptive period for some who are hoping to harvest and I wish you all the best of luck through this period, given what we have seen so far these past 4 weeks.


What we have seen has not been unexpected on here as you know.


% chance of exceeding the median rainfall for the period October 24-December 6 2021

There has been not too much change from the previous update, the higher than average rainfall connected to the Indian Ocean Dipole will run through the northwest of the nation, throughout the tropics and into the southeast states, lifting the chances of rainfall. There will also be influence from the ongoing increase of temperatures in the tropical waters over northern Australia. This is leading to above average rainfall over northern Australia and this is being projected southwards as upper level winds turn more easterly and northerly through the month of November. This will also lead to an increase in severe weather risks the further east you live in the nation. The weather very humid as well through northern and eastern Australia and again this will be transported south and east. Overall a wet month for the nation, starting out of the gates with a stormy start to November which will persist for much of the month for northern WA, the NT, QLD and NSW. Occasionally wet and humid for SA and VIC and the southwest of the nation likely to see seasonal conditions.

% chance of exceeding the median temperatures for the period October 24-December 6 2021

No change from the previous update, with the warmer bias continuing over the northern and eastern areas of the nation and the southwest continuing with the cooler Spring. The weather over the eastern inland may be cooler than normal at times with more rainfall and cloud cover leading to lower temperatures. The northern tropics may see some moderation to the high heat values as we go through the month and into December.

Severe Thunderstorm Risk November

The risk is running high to very high through November. We already have severe thunderstorm risks identified this week coming for the southeast inland and based off what has been a wild start to the season, this is expected to continue for large chunks of the state. The higher humidity values coming out of the tropical north will increase the risks through western and central areas through this period and carry over into the Summer.

Large Hail Risk November

A high to very high risk continues from October for much of the southeast inland of QLD and this will extend westbound into the remainder of the south during the month as higher humidity and warmer temperatures mix with the seasonal inland troughs throughout this period.. We have already seen what is capable so far this season and it is only right to continue this risk over to November.

Flash Flood Risk November

High to very high risk of flash flooding state wide, with the highest risks already verified through pockets of the southeast and eastern parts of the state at times in the past 4 weeks. The moisture content is expected to deepen further as we go throughout the month and into Summer. The risk of flash flooding will continue deep into Summer.

Damaging Winds Risk November

Damaging winds and destructive winds with tornados have been observed during the past 4 weeks and this will continue to be a risk for large parts of the southeast and central inland of QLD. The remainder of the state will see an elevated risk of straight line winds reaching damaging thresholds. A low risk expected for eastern and northern Cape York right now.

Frost Risk November

No risk of frost under current guidance.

Humidity Risk November

A very humid airmass running above average over northern and northeast Australia will continue into November with that influencing the severity of the thunderstorms, more moisture coupled with unstable air increasing the risk of damaging storm and rainfall outbreaks. The risk of humidity lingering for long periods of time is not unusual for QLD, however humidity values could exceed the average for a long period of time which may place crops and stock at risk of fungal issues exposed to these conditions for a long period of time.

DATA


RAINFALL

Euro Rainfall Accumulation Ensemble Data - Next 6 Weeks - October 22nd -December 6th 2021

A very wet signal for much of the nation with potential flood risks for the southeast and east with these rainfall values. Higher humidity values and warmer temperatures will increase your risk of mildew, rot and other fungal issues for your crops, particularly those summer crops that are in flower, fruit and at risk of impact from these conditions in the east and south. The severe weather risk from thunderstorms is running high to very high through this period with rainfall likely to be derived from storm outbreaks through the east and periodically, large scale rainfall events sweeping west to east.

Euro Rainfall Accumulation Control Data - Next 6 Weeks - October 22nd -December 6th 2021

This highlights the convective nature of rainfall - it will not end up like this but that is a wet look for the nation running into December.

Euro Rainfall Anomalies - Next 6 Weeks - October 22nd -December 6th2021

That is a VERY WET look or northern Australia with rainfall anomalies 100-200mm above normal for the 6 week period. The rainfall anomalies along the east coast 50-100mm above normal. At this stage most of the nation seeing a 25-50mm increase on normal for this period. That is a wet signal.

CFS Rainfall Accumulation Ensemble Data- Next 6 Weeks - October 22nd -December 6th 2021

We track this daily here, and no change to the signal of wetter bias the further east you go and seasonally it is what you expect as you travel north with the tropics waking up. The tropics are wide awake earlier than normal and this will impact late Spring and Summer rainfall.

CFS Rainfall Accumulation Control Data- Next 6 Weeks - October 22nd -December 6th 2021

The control member way too dry for the north of the nation and through QLD on current guidance from the climate drivers, but that persistent wet signal for the east coast is the theme on this particular product which has carried on this entire week. That is potentially 300-500mm of rainfall for eastern QLD.

GFS Rainfall Accumulation - Next 5 Weeks - October 22nd -November 24th 2021

This model has now fallen into line with the Euro and CMC showing heavier rainfall nation wide which is good to see, that means that we can now prepare for many areas to record above average rainfall and humidity values.

GFS Rainfall Anomalies - Next 5 Weeks - October 22nd - November 24th 2021

Now running wetter than last update which means that the rainfall signal is increasing across the nation.

CMC Rainfall Accumulation - Next 4 Weeks - October 22nd -November 22nd 2021

A very damp four weeks on the way, as advised in the video, your short and medium term forecasts will chop and change I am cautioning all that are making preparations for harvest to be aware of the forecast rapidly changing over the coming week, most likely trending wetter for southeast and eastern Australia. Something to watch.

CMC Rainfall Anomalies - Next 4 Weeks - October 15 - November 14 2021

Very wet look, and it is increasing each update. The west turning wetter now in the latest outlook for the medium term too. Numbers are coming up over SA and into the NT and northwest. This is picking up on the warmer waters right across northern Australia and the IOD.


TEMPERATURES

Euro Temperature Anomalies - Next 6 Weeks - October 22nd - December6th 2021

This is still closest to the post where other models are running too cool or too warm. There is likely to be below average weather for the western interior of WA and through eastern parts of Australia, especially over the coming 1-2 weeks before conditions warm further. We will feel some of that warmer and humid weather this week but then turn cooler and wetter again through November. The battle in terms of temperatures continues. The north will be the opposite, running warm for the coming 1-2 weeks before the rainfall increases. Overall this is indicative of a wet and stormy period with inconsistent temperatures throughout the continent and no especially long run of hot or cooler weather for any one area away from the southwest.

GFS Temperature Anomalies - Next 5 Weeks - October 22nd -November 24th 2021

The GFS is still running way too warm in my opinion, and while it is not impossible as nothing is impossible in weather, it is highly unlikely at this time.

More details to come on this particular product on Tuesday.

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