The weather really hard to pick at the moment over parts of QLD as we see a tussle between the colder drier air surging north from southern Australia and moisture streaming south from northern Australia, the missing element is a strong lifting mechanism, but the clash of the airmasses could lead to some patchy showers and storms developing for central and southern inland areas as we move through the forecast period this week.

Essentially dry weather is expected for western districts with the dry airmass and southerly winds surging northwards. But along the dry line over central and southern areas from later Tuesday into Wednesday, we could see a few showers and thunderstorms develop. At this time, the coverage not overly extensive or heavy.

Another surge of moisture is forecast to move south from the tropics in about a week which may form a better rain band near an upper trough moving out of the NT into northern QLD. That would be a better combination for rainfall to become widespread.

Along the coast, onshore winds are forecast to develop at times, but the air is not overly humid, but showers may appear from time to time, heaviest over the far northern tropics where thunder is also possible.

Lets take a look


Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is forecast to be patchy and well below where the forecast totals have been in recent weeks. I am anticipating the west remaining dry with a southerly flow sending in the first decent dry surge for these areas following very heavy rainfall last week. For the central and southern inland, the forecast rainfall is tricky. There will be thickening cloud with patchy rainfall and thunderstorms about, with the odd fall possibly moving past 20mm with storms but the coverage isolated. Along the coast showers are also forecast to develop from tomorrow and persist off and on throughout the period but falls light to moderate at best. The wet weather for the inland may clear later this week but return later in the weekend with the next upper trough, which could still spawn a larger rainfall event, but as mentioned, the forecast confidence is low but will be watching for the potential of further dry season rainfall potential spreading southwards.

Thunderstorm Forecast Monday.

Thunderstorms are generally expected over the northern tropics during the afternoon and evening. There is a low chance of thunderstorms over the southern inland but at this time, they will be hard to find.

MEDIUM TERM - May 8th-15th 2022

Rainfall Anomalies

The wet bias does want to keep on going through northeast parts of the nation with persistent troughing and ridging combining with the onshore flow (via the positive SAM) to bring more rainfall for a lot of QLD and into NSW. The southwest seeing an increase in wet weather after this dry week, with a long wave trough parked in the region combining with the moisture streaming out of the Indian Ocean. Elsewhere, no strong bias for the rainfall distribution to be anything outside of seasonal.

Temperature Anomalies

The cooler bias continues for the west after a warmer week this week, the temperatures will come down and the weather in the east will warm up through this period. So overall, the pattern will flip during this time. Northern areas still running above average with humidity set to return from the north and east.

DATA - Refer to the video for further information and it is critical to keep check of the data sets to understand where the next major weather events are emerging from outside of this period. It may be quiet now but I am all about preparation and ensuring that information is shared with you as soon as it is available.

00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

The pressure pattern is largely unchanged from this morning and I think we will start to get a better idea on the impacts of rainfall for eastern areas of QLD and into NSW with the colder air surging north and feeding into the moisture, that could happen mid week or again over the weekend with an upper trough in the region. The showery weather over the southeast could be rather productive and certainly the coldest weather of the year will be moving northwards during the coming week. A dry airmass will suppress rainfall for extensive areas of the nation. Into the weekend and we could still have lingering rainfall over the northeast and eastern tropics. At this stage the next major rain maker approaches the west of the nation during the coming weekend and will likely start to fall from the following week and then spread east. The remainder of the nation, fairly quiet for now but I would expect more active weather through the medium term from the 10-15th of May. How that looks remains to be seen.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks

Moisture spreading through the nation's north looks to move further east and northeast as we have a drier surge spreading north this week and that dominates the weather this week. A colder drier airmass will herald the start of the Autumnal shift and the trends towards the Winter Season. This will reduce rainfall chances this week for many inland areas. We will see the next wave of moisture build over the west and northwest of the nation from the end of the weekend into next week. Over the east, we could see widespread showers but via lower level moisture lingering through the easterly flow that emerges as new high pressure works in from the west. The tropical north enjoying a drier surge but it may not last that long.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

A closer look in - rainfall forecasting for the inland rainfall is low confidence but where the rainfall carries a higher confidence is over Victoria and southern parts of SA. The rainfall from QLD into NSW into the end of the weekend needs watching with an upper trough nearby but I am not convinced of it just yet. You can see the role of the drier air working through the interior.

More coming up from 8am EST and more on the La Nina potential tomorrow as well for the back half of this year and the updated ENSO forecast.

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