QLD - FINE WEEKEND BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP INLAND FROM MONDAY. SHOWERS FOR COAST.

OVERVIEW

A few dry days left for the Sunshine State and cold nights are on the way too as we see a high pressure system begin to move over the region leading to more settled skies, light winds and mild to warm sunny days.


Though conditions may start to shift from later in the weekend and into next week as moisture begins to increase over the state, a trough forms over the west and southwest of the state. With the help of a cold front passing through the southeast, this may lead to the trough deepening and showers and thunderstorms could emerge to kick off next week.


A more active week of weather is forecast for the state from Monday.


SHORT TERM

With a series of significant waves passing through the south of the nation in the coming days, we could start to see an increase of influence via the Indian Ocean which will be in the form of cloud cover thickening and rainfall chances over inland areas of QLD, NSW and VIC coming up. That indicates what is on the way for the nation as we move deeper into Winter and come into Spring.


Looking at the coming week, there is the chance we see a deeper spread of moisture via the easterly winds combine with the remnants of what is moving through the jet stream from the west leading to elevated rainfall chances along not only the trough early in the week but with another trough moving through during the second half of the week, that secondary feature has the potential to produce some moderate to heavy inland rainfall once again.


There are breaks in the rainfall as each wave is passing through at pace, but the frequency of the rainfall may increase as we move through the weeks ahead, especially if we see the SAM tending negative, in this case with such deep moisture across the country, it will likely result in more cloud bands and rainfall for areas that are normal dry in August


LONG TERM/AREAS TO WATCH

It is now quite likely we are seeing that shift I have been rabbiting on about for weeks and months now playing out with the pressure pattern opening up and allowing a moist and unstable weather pattern spreading throughout the nation. Strong cold fronts meeting the moisture is expected to bring the chance of wild weather and severe weather potential.


As the moisture continues to roll throughout the country, the rainfall frequency will continue to increase and that is in line as we move into a very soggy Spring.


Watch not only the moisture profile over the northwest of the country leading back into the Indian Ocean but also moisture running through northern areas of the nation and throughout the Coral Sea running via the easterly winds.


WEATHER VIDEO PM - THURSDAY 28TH JULY 2022

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

A dry set of days on the way for the weekend. Despite the usual onshore showers for the coastal areas north of Townsville via the trades, the rest of you settled and dry. There is the chance we start to see cloud developing over the southwest of the state during Sunday and Monday along a trough, this starts to bring the next chance of rainfall to areas of the state. A band of cloud will cross through to the southeast areas by Tuesday before clearing offshore. It is very likely that the heaviest of the rainfall will pass through NSW with the first system. Another trough moves through the state during Wednesday and this offers more widespread rainfall and gusty conditions with some heavier falls developing over the southern and southeast inland west of the divide and along the NSW border. This rain band looks to clear out from the end of next week into the weekend but some modelling does support that moisture becoming trapped north of the fast flow pattern and rainfall chances may linger over Central areas which is what we see in October.

The spread of rainfall will continue to bounce around from showing more one run to less the next, I have pulled the rainfall numbers back to reflect the highest chances of where rainfall will likely be and the further south and southeast you go will determine how much rainfall you can expect.

Frost Forecast Friday Morning

A cold airmass trapped under high pressure through inland areas and nearby the coast may be severe in the colder pockets overnight and into Friday morning. Conditions warm steadily through the morning.

SEVERE WEATHER WATCH

Severe Frost Saturday Morning

A nasty set up for severe frost continues into Saturday morning with some areas possibly recording temperatures as low as -10C nearby the ACT and Snowy Mountains and -7C over the Tablelands in NSW and Alpine VIC. Temperatures could be as low as -4C to -6C over inland NSW on the slopes.

FORECAST CHARTS

August 3rd-17th 2022

Moisture Watch

Deep moisture can be seen offshore WA. This moisture will take the best part of this week to traverse the country via strong cold fronts and low-pressure systems and from this time next week into the following week, we should see that moving into the eastern inland with moderate to locally heavy rainfall associated with the frontal weather and moisture moving through. Another burst of moisture running into the jet stream and into frontal weather sweeping southern Australia will likely have higher impacts over the SWLD with heavy rainfall potential there. Additional rainfall is likely to sweep through the remainder of Ag Australia through this period with the moderate to heavy burst of rainfall gradually moving offshore the eastern portions of Australia.

Moisture will be running via various ports through the nation, but the coverage is at a broad scale now, and it is uncertain where the highest impacts will be experienced regarding rainfall. But elevated temperatures are likely to feature over the north and northeast with increasing heat levels. The moisture out of the Indian Ocean may feed inland instability leading to rain and storms building. The frontal wave train will carry modest moisture values and could interact with another wave of moisture coming from the Central Indian Ocean leading to widespread falls developing across the nation's south. Whether this results in widespread above average rainfall remains to be seen given it is 2-3 weeks out.

Rainfall Anomalies

Rainfall anomalies are expected to be above the norm in the coming week for many areas with that major system clearing eastwards offshore the QLD and NSW region early in the period. Humidity and unsettled weather may lag back over the NT and pockets of inland WA, and this may be drawn southwards into the fast flow pattern continuing to bring windy showery weather for Southern Australia. Stronger fronts approaching the west may once again be accompanied by larger moisture plumes moving through the Indian Ocean.

Rainfall anomalies are driven by the moisture that lingers throughout the interior and whether that can be drawn back southwards into the fast flow pattern over Southern Australia. Frontal weather offering at least a decent chance of seasonal rainfall for this period over southern Australia. Weaker signals for rainfall being above average over northern Australia but you will notice the humidity values are likely to be on the rise as the upper-level winds and the surface level winds start to bring moisture in from the northeast and north.

Temperature Anomalies

A warmup well above the average is forecast to continue throughout the coming week and that will persist through next week with a northwest to westerly flow helping to transport that warmer air into the eastern and southeastern inland. The cooler bias over the SWLD of WA is thanks to being on the western flank of large low-pressure systems moving through the Bight and a southwesterly flow featuring. The cooler air may drift into the southern coastal areas at times.

Temperatures are forecast to continue at above average values for large areas of northern Australia with a northwesterly flow aloft dragging that warmer air into the eastern inland. Rainfall and cloud coverage over the southern and southeast inland will suppress the full warmth being realised but seasonal weather with the wet weather is expected over the south. Cooler bias remains in the west with the southwesterly flow continuing to feature here with additional rainfall.

DATA - Refer to the video for further information


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to the video for further information and context in relation to the dynamic and energetic weather pattern that will continue to throw the rainfall and temperature forecasts all over the place for the coming few days before forecasts settle down on a consensus as we track the pressure pattern in real time.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks

The moisture values still remain unchanged over the coming weeks and the guidance is expected to stay very much on course with moisture spreading from northwest to southeast throughout the nation with moisture then thinning out a tad over Southern Australia as the pattern becomes more dominant westerly with the wave train but the deeper moisture over northern Australia needs watching. We could see major moisture surge over the NT and QLD which may lead to above average and early season rainfall coming through in the medium term in the presence of an upper trough.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

A closer look in - rainfall is bouncing around from run to run for QLD with the moisture available but this is highlighting the same line I keep using, the relationship of the low pressure to the moisture determines who gets what under a complex pressure pattern.

May see some showers return to coastal areas of the NT as well and possibly inland with some afternoon convection in the coming weeks.

More coming up from 8am EST with the next weather video. I need to take a breath tonight to get my energy ahead of busy weekend. Thanks.


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