The same old song and dance as this ridge continues to dominate most of the inland of QLD, the northern flank of that ridge sending an onshore flow into the east coast, triggering showers for some parts of the coast, most widespread about the FNQ coast with the trade winds.
A weak boundary is still sitting over the state today with a chance a rogue shower through the inland and some light rainfall has broken out over the border in northern NSW which is interesting as modelling did not develop that throughout the forecast period.
The weather over the inland is anticipated to remain largely unchanged, as is the weather for the coastal sections of QLD. Over the north the weather becoming more humid as the onshore winds pump moisture right across the tropics through the Gulf and into the Top End.
There are signals continuing to rumble into the medium term, starting to see more consistency of inland rainfall developing. That will become the focus of this week in terms of the weather to watch.
Lets take a look at the latest data
00Z GFS Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 16 days
The pressure pattern is quiet this week, that is well documented. The first change coming through the southern parts of the nation hits WA during Wednesday and slides, weakens on approach to the southeast states. That will introduce warmer weather for southern areas and then showers developing for SA, VIC and TAS, perhaps southern NSW but otherwise the inland areas remain dry. Next week the stronger system that comes through southern WA moves over SA and clashes with the hot airmass driven south through the northwest flow, interacting with moisture over the eastern inland with a larger area of rainfall and thunderstorms developing. That could bring the heaviest rainfall of the month for SA, VIC, NSW, QLD and TAS. This system may take a while to move through. Fine weather over northwest and western parts of the nation while the east is drenched under this guidance. The tropics turning humid and unsettled during the next week.
00z GFS Rainfall for the coming 16 days
Rainfall fairly light on for the week across the nation, with only coastal areas of the southeast and the eastern parts of QLD expected to see any rainfall this week. Then a change rolling through WA, will introduce showers and perhaps some moderate falls for the southwest of WA. The first front will weaken as it passes through to the southeast states bringing showers to southern SA and into VIC and TAS. A few light showers are possible for southern NSW later this week. A stronger system coming through WA Thursday will kick along the showery weather for the weekend over the southeast states with some moderate falls for TAS and southwest VIC. Showers may creep into southern NSW Saturday into Sunday. Then the stronger feature will pass through the southern and eastern states from early the following week with moderate to heavy falls possible in that configuration for pockets of southern and eastern Australia. We will see it chop and change so this will be the area to watch. When the east turns wet, the east will likely be drier. The north of the nation will see an increase in humidity.
00z GFS Precipitable Water Anomalies next 16 days
The PW anomalies again painting the picture of the drier air under high pressure being overrun by the moisture that builds over northern and eastern Australia in the persistence of easterly winds. Those easterly winds will become more frequent as we track through spring and into the summer, so the importance of them for areas of the east are a given, but for central areas of the nation too, very important. The system from the west runs into the moisture drawn through eastern Australia seeing larger scale rainfall break out. The anomalies suggest that even though modelling is showing moderate rainfall, there could be some heavier falls than what is being indicated.
00z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 10 days
The weather is expected as you know quiet for much of the nation. Lets take a look at the middle of the week and the first front is passing through WA bringing a burst of moderate showers, high pressure over the central and eastern parts leading to clearing skies over the southeast and a persistence of clearer weather for the east. Warmer temperatures are expected to build through the outlook period as a northwest flow gets going for the southeast states ahead of that front. The first front may bring more rainfall if Euro is right to the southeast and southern states. A follow up system, similar in scale to GFS, looks set to pounce on the southeast early the following week, but is drier than GFS. So there are some divergence on where the moisture is getting involved with the frontal weather moving from west to east.
00z Euro Rainfall for the coming 10 days
Rainfall largely unchanged from this morning, but there has been an uptick in numbers for the southeast states Friday through Saturday. But the model is different to GFS for the medium term bringing less rainfall in that system the following week, so again there is divergence, but we are now as expected seeing more consistency for the medium term. Now we wait and see how the data holds in coming days.
00z Euro Precipitable Water Values next 10 days
You can see the moisture building in the easterly winds for the eastern parts of Australia with the onshore winds. Another shot of moisture coming in from the northwest via the jet stream may sneak in ahead of the front coming through WA mid to late week, that could provide more rainfall than what was forecast in this evening's forecast packages from the BoM. I will have another look at that tomorrow morning and introduce higher rainfall into rainfall forecasts into the latter part of the week. The moisture looks to be shoved out by the strong and gusty westerly change with a larger system the following week where you can see with the GFS, that model holds more moisture in place bringing up rainfall chances.
Rainfall for the next 10 days
Not much over the inland, perhaps a little rain tonight from the middle level cloud band rolling through. That should clear by tomorrow. The east coast could pick up on a few showers, more frequent over the FNQ coast where the trade winds will bring in the deeper moisture and moderate falls. Then we watch the drier air come in under high pressure, that leading to a dry and warmer week. A front will pass through to the south of the region this weekend bringing in much warmer and breezy conditions. The next chance of widespread rainfall is in the following week which sticks out! This rainfall being over a week out still carries a low confidence but the modelling is improving.
I will have a look at the medium term with rainfall starting to build over the norther tropics and over the southern inland areas of the nation, something is lurking out there and it all is banked on moisture coming in from the northwest and northeast. So a look at the Indian Ocean and Coral Sea tomorrow to see how much moisture is floating around and whether it can be in phase with the systems coming out of the west to offer some rainfall relief to QLD.