QLD - FINE WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK WITH DRIER AND WARMER AIR FOR THE INLAND.

ANALYSIS

The cold front over SA is now moving into VIC and it has become the focus of weather across the country today and will remain so through tonight and into Tuesday.


A band of patchy rainfall is leading the rainfall coverage across the nation where most elsewhere is settled tonight with a dry air mass under high pressure.


SHORT TERM

The short term is dictated by the large scale high and the weak blocking pattern that has been present in the Tasman Sea, combining to simmer down the active weather load we have seen for a few weeks now.


The frontal weather will continue to glance the south of the country through the week with the chance of further showers at times but nothing widespread or heavy.


But the interest lay behind a cold front developing from later in the coming weekend, colder air underneath this feature will move northwards and could bring some higher chances of rainfall through the southeast and eastern inland of the nation.


LONGER TERM

That clearly is the system of interest and we have been talking about that for quite some time now where we are looking at a more vigorous expression of rainfall across the nation with this feature. 


Many areas over inland QLD could see 2-3 months worth of rain with this feature though noting it does not rain much this time of year through the interior of the nation and this includes QLD.


The rainfall may be swept out to see with a cold front moving through the southeast but it could also be swept southwards if high pressure wins out over the nation’s southeast so the pattern remains complex and low confidence for this event.


AREAS TO WATCH

The main event to watch is the one detailed above.


There may also be some rainfall developing towards WA with another cold front moving through towards the end of the month with an influx of moisture.


Overall, the SAM is expected to return to neutral values through the end of the month and into early July, but indications are for that to snake back towards a secondary negative phase as we move into the new month seeing cold fronts lifting northwards with the westerly wind belt.


WEATHER VIDEO PM - MONDAY 20TH JUNE 2022

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 14 Days

Remains a forecast of high interest with the chance of widespread showers developing along the coast during the latter part of this week as the winds veer into the east, these will be found over the northern coastal areas. Some chance we will see those showers extend southwards along the coast with the falls light to moderate. Moisture from the northwest and north could be drawn into an upper trough later in the weekend and into next week and this offers the chance of widespread rainfall. While the rainfall spread is broad, the heavier rainfall will become clearer as we move along throughout the week and who gets what will also become a lot clearer too. This looks to be the broadest rainfall attempt in July, in many years for the state but a few more days to come before we figure out what is going on.

another. *apologies on the charts below it says rainfall next 10 days, that is a typo and it is the next 14 days to try and capture the full rainfall event potential in the outlook period*

Rainfall is highly volatile and can easily move off the coast but also move westwards as well with heavier falls inland so stay close to the forecasts and hopefully by the end of the week we will know more.

MEDIUM TERM

June 27th - July 4th, 2022

Rainfall Anomalies

Lingering above average rainfall potential remains across most of the global models for the east, the struggle point in forecasting with any great confidence is how far west does that above average smear come through QLD and into NSW. The west may see some drier weather develop through this period, but only marginally ahead of the next rainfall event due through this period. Seasonal most elsewhere.

Temperature Anomalies

Cooler bias over the southeast but not colder than what we saw earlier this month, in persistent onshore southwesterly winds. Some warmer weather likely up over northern Australia with the persistent northeasterly flow and higher humidity.

DATA - Refer to the video for further information on the short and medium term analysis.


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

Not a great deal of change from this morning, but make sure you grab the analysis from the video to get context and understand the parameters behind the data tonight as it will be a volatile week of weather interpretation!

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks

The moisture content is at relatively seasonal values across the country for when we have westerly winds, though the increased volume of PW values in the westerly wind belt may see showers become a little more extensive against what we are used to seeing at this time of year which is a sign of how things will likely play out for the remainder of Winter, with more rainfall to come via the westerly wind regime and milder conditions too. The moisture over northern Australia, clearly sticking out like a sore thumb for that rainfall potential in the early stages of next week.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

A closer look in - this forecast is low confidence so make sure you check the forecasts here regularly and come back at 8pm EST for the broader data sets.

More coming up from 8pm EST with a look at the models and rainfall, what is happening over northern and northeast Australia!?

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