The weather is settled for a few days which I think many in the state can appreciate after what has been a wild October. The new high pressure ridge over the southeast and eastern inland of the nation supporting the clearance of weather over much of the east with lower dewpoints, but the western areas into the southwest may start to see showers and storms once again from tomorrow.
From mid week, the winds over coastal areas are turning more unstable easterly. Yes there will be a few showers this week, but mainly light and inconsequential in terms of rainfall totals. This moist onshore airflow may bring the chance of showers and thunderstorms back to the table for southern and eastern areas from this point.
As the trough out of the inland of the NT and SA moves east into the eastern states, the moisture in the region will be lifted into showers and thunderstorms over much of the state, with the chance of severe thunderstorms approaching later this week with scattered falls over 30mm possible.
The weather from later this week through mid month is expected to be humid and unsettled for much of the state so enjoy the last of the drier airmass.
Lets take a look.
Rainfall Next 10 days
Rainfall is expected to be light and patchy along the coast to start this week with the onshore winds. Over the western border areas with the NT, that is where you will find the wettest weather through the first half of this week, before the trough and thundery weather translates eastwards across the state. The rainfall totals could be heavy in localised spots with severe weather risks returning later this week to the southern and eastern areas of the state. As we track into the weekend, more widespread showers and thunderstorms across southern and eastern areas of the state with further wet and humid weather developing over tropical areas. The rainfall continues to be uneven in distribution.
Thunderstorm Forecast Monday
Thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing overnight over far western areas as a pressure trough continues to meander eastwards. The thunderstorms more widespread along the western border again tomorrow afternoon and evening, with the chance of damaging winds and heavy rainfall, but I think this will stay mainly over the NT but will review in the morning. Some areas could get falls of 30mm in quick time in the region. Storms may progress into the central areas at night in a weakening phase.
Flash Flood Risk Monday
The weather along the western border is where you will find the heaviest rainfall but I think most of it will sit back over in the NT during Monday.
Damaging Winds Risk Monday
Same as the flash flood risk, most of it stay over the NT side of the border for now, but watch the satellite and warning trends.
Euro 00z - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 days
More details on the synoptic scale in the video at the top of the page.
GFS 00z - Precipitable Water Values - Next 16 days
The very high moisture values leads to excessive rainfall and that also impacts rainfall chances further around the nation where the upper level winds propel that moisture to.
GFS 00z - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 16 days
Note the moisture recycling and circulating around the nation, I talk more about this at the surface level in the video at the top of the page.
Euro 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days
More details in the video.
A closer look in. No skill in specifics, we now work with ranges of rainfall forecasting which I know is frustrating but that is how it rolls.
GFS 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 days
Scattered uneven rainfall will continue, but that rainfall prognostic for the tropics into the NT and WA is record rainfall for this time of year.
CMC 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 15 days
That is a wet look for the nation, even SA which is sitting in a 30-60mm range for the next 2 weeks.
CFS 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 6 weeks
That wet signal continues for much of the nation into mid December
I will update more tomorrow from 7am EDT. Let the models settle and see how they look during the morning.