QLD - FINE INLAND AND WARMER THIS WEEKEND. FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST FROM TOMORROW

ANALYSIS

A dry spell continues for much of the inland with the colder nights easing with the fine weather to persist but day time temperatures are forecast to increase through the weekend as the flow pattern tends northwest to westerly.


Along pockets of the coast, we may start to see some of those showers that have been wafting around offshore, approach the coast and lead to light falls into the weekend and early next week with a trough rolling throughout the Coral Sea as a deep low forms near Norfolk Island.


SHORT TERM

The dry weather is forecast to continue across inland areas until mid next week when we start to see the northern edge of a trough passing through the eastern inland. Scattered showers are possible with this feature but placement of the feature is key and that is yet to be determined.


For coastal areas, the showers are forecast to clear early next week as the flow tends northwest to westerly over the coastal areas.


A strong upper trough may develop over the western and northern areas of the state may start to bring moisture in from the north and into the state which could see rainfall develop for western and northern areas towards the end of the week into the weekend.


LONG TERM

Really bloody tricky forecasting. There is a lot of divergence in the modelling for the weekend and into the following week with a band of rain possible over the northern and western parts of the state and possibly showers increasing along the coast with moderate rainfall possible with both features. BUT, there is no certainty from run to run, however the ingredients are there for rainfall to return to the forecast.


AREAS TO WATCH

All eyes on the moisture over the northern and northeastern parts of the nation, can it connect with the upper trough and lead to widespread rainfall developing for the usually dry areas of the state.


WEATHER VIDEO PM - THURSDAY 16TH JUNE 2022

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Not a whole lot of change to the forecast with showers in the short terms along the coast leading to mainly light falls. Some light rainfall generally and that should clear throughout the early part of next week. Some light to moderate rainfall is possible over the northern tropics with onshore easterly winds but overall, the forecast is not for anything major for the coming 7 days. But the forecast confidence is poor for the longer range as we move into the weekend and next week, which may lead to the forecast becoming erratic over the day 7-14 range so be aware that the rainfall forecasts are not set in stone and patience required for the confidence to improve.

Rainfall numbers are coming up along the coast through the weekend and again later next week with troughing in the region, but widespread heavy rainfall is not expected. A northern kick to the modelling with the low-pressure system moving over NSW early next week and that could come into southern inland QLD with light rainfall stacking up over the western slopes of the Great Dividing Range, but rainfall looks to be nonexistent over the western interior.

Frost Risk Forecast Friday

A low to moderate risk of frost once again over higher terrain in the northeast of NSW and nosing into southern QLD during Friday morning, but conditions will ease quickly once the sun is up!

MEDIUM TERM

June 23rd-30th 2022

Rainfall Anomalies

Once again, low confidence in the forecasts into the end of the month and a lot of the rainfall forecasts are very low confidence for northern and eastern areas with the upper trough passing through. The rainfall over the south of the nation is at seasonal values with frontal weather passing through.

Temperature Anomalies

Cooler bias strengthening for parts of the eastern inland once again with a cold pool of air riding behind a cold front later next week then sitting over the eastern interior, continuing to buck the trend of climate models that were suggesting somewhat warmer conditions than what we have observed in the east. Seasonal temperatures out west but the warmer weather over the northwest will continue with dry air

DATA - Refer to the video for more information related to the charts above plus the daily breakdown through the short and medium term.


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

More details can be found in the video however I am watching the two major systems of potential in the medium term, the event over northern Australia, where does that end up and the system that could come over WA at the end of the month with a major moisture infeed with above average rainfall.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks

We are seeing that major rainfall event emerging through the medium term and clearly that has got a lot of people interested, but once again it is of low confidence and will be until early next week we will know more about that feature. For now, we are looking at the bulk of the wet weather found over southern parts of the nation via frontal weather.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

A closer look in - I cannot add more caution to the wind with the rainfall over parts of the east through the medium term, so refer to the video for more information. The bulk of the rainfall will be in about 10 days from now, so a long way out.

More coming up from 8pm EST with a look at the models and rainfall.

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