A pressure trough over Central Australia with a deep moisture supply passing through the upper atmosphere from northwest to southeast is expected to meet the trough, and this allowing showers and thunderstorms developing over areas west of the state tomorrow afternoon. The weather slowly moving east later tomorrow with moderate to heavy rainfall for the Channel Country quite likely with the slow progression of the trough.
For southern areas during Sunday, patchy rain and storms will develop as the trough begins to move east, thanks to a cold front passing to the south of the nation, this moving the trough along.
Monday looks quite wet from the Northwest through to the Southeast with a band of rain and storms, again moderate to heavy falls are possible along the band, thunderstorms driving this rainfall spread. Over the southeast inland, the rain could turn heavy at times as a southerly change passes through.
Tuesday, lingering showers and thunderstorms are possible about the central and northern areas with the trough still about but the rainfall becoming more isolated.
The next chance of showers and thunderstorms arrives in the state later in the outlook with another trough.
Lets take a look
Rainfall next 10 days
Good chance of soaking and beneficial rainfall for dry areas of western and southern QLD, with a slow moving band of rain and storms passing through from Sunday to Tuesday. Locally heavy falls are possible about the Channel Country Sunday, before the risk extends from near the NT border about the Gulf Country through the Central Districts towards the Southeast Inland. Thunderstorms also in the mix producing locally heavy falls. The weather clears from the west during Monday afternoon and off the coast by Wednesday. Yet another trough is expected to approach during Thursday with another round of showers and thunderstorms. There are further troughs beyond this period.
Darling Downs and Southeast Inland
Thunderstorm Forecast Saturday
Thunderstorms are expected to break out over the western and southwestern areas of QLD later in the day if not at night, with the main activity expected over SA and the NT. The activity spreading east to be over much of the southwest and west by nightfall. This activity spreads east through much of the state during Sunday.
Damaging Winds Risk Saturday
There is a moderate risk of damaging winds with thunderstorms that develop along a trough developing over Central Australia during the afternoon and evening. The risk will graduate east. Raised dust is also possible with reduced visibility
Euro 00z - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 Days
The surface pressure pattern is dominated by high pressure at the moment but watch the developing trough tomorrow and the appearance of low pressure taking over as we go through the outlook period as with heat levels increasing and that means heat rises and destablises the atmosphere. This will be the theme as we track through the weeks and months ahead. Now the first trough is to pass through over the weekend into next week bringing areas of rainfall with thunderstorms about. Rainfall confidence is low and refer to all the charts as low confidence over the east. For the west a strong cold front is expected to sweep the region, the major impact will be well below average temperatures for much of next week. Out of that front a second system forms and the forward motion of this system approaching the east is much quicker tonight on all guidance so there is some chance it could be absorbed into the first feature enhancing the rainfall over NSW and QLD. Over the north the tropics are set to fire, more isolated over northern WA and Cape York. Another trough and inland rain and storms is being progged for next weekend spreading from the NT through SA but that also carries low confidence. It is spring time in Australia.
Euro 00z - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 10 Days
The guidance on moisture is unchanged nationally from this morning, the issue is the placement of systems that lifts this moisture into areas of rain and thunderstorms. The tropics are turning soupy and that moisture seeps south once again later next week into the following weekend. The west stays under relatively dry air for now, but a pulse of moisture may approach from the Indian Ocean and invigorate a west coast trough just outside of this period.
Euro 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days
Rainfall confidence is low nationwide, away from the southwest of WA where one system is expected to bring light falls and then conditions dry out. So pay attention to forecasts and do not get caught up on the data tonight, we are likely to see some further adjustments due to timing issues with the secondary system plus once the trough intialises in real time and the low forms in real time, then guidance improves.
A closer look in
GFS 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days
Refer to Video for more information
More weather information coming up later this evening with the model wrap and rainfall after 9pm