QLD - FINE FRIDAY THEN RAINFALL SPREADS EAST OVER THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK.

Beneficial spring rainfall coming back to the forecast for many districts this weekend and into next week, with a slow moving trough and deep moisture layer combining to bring the chance of rainfall back.


Some areas of the inland have already seen some decent rainfall in recent weeks, mainly in the south, but areas further north and towards the northwest could profit from some moderate rainfall into early next week, as the trough meanders through from west to east.


Another trough is expected to sweep in mid next week and could reinvigorate the band of rainfall over coastal areas bringing some much needed rainfall to the dry communities of the Wide Bay and Burnett regions.


Lets take a look

Rainfall next 10 days

The rainfall is expected to develop from Saturday morning in western areas but become mroe extensive by Sunday and there could well be some heavy falls over the Southwest districts and running along the NSW border to the SE Inland. Some areas could see 1-2 months worth of rainfall, especially through the outback. For Central and Northwest Districts, the rain increases from Sunday into early next week as the trough stands up and then progresses eastwards before weakening Tuesday. A secondary trough is anticipated to move through during later next week which could help reinvigorate the first trough and see showers and storms increase statewide. The tropics are suppressed for now, but the upper high parked over the region is expected to move off during the weekend leading to more cloud and shower activity about on most days.

DATA

Euro 00z - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 Days

The pressure pattern still supports fairly settled weather for the end of the working week nationwide, very quiet weather-wise. From Saturday the weather turns over inland NT and through northern SA as a front and pressure trough taps into deep moisture to produce widespread cloud and patchy rainfall. There will be the chance of storms through parts of the NT spreading into northern SA and western NSW and QLD. The southeast will also see showers with the front passing through but light falls. There is a very low chance of thunderstorms with thick cloud cover stamping out the storm risk, that moves east through Sunday. Now Monday rain is ongoing over QLD and NSW back through the NT and a strong cold front passing over the SWLD will bring showers and gusty colder conditions to the region. That front then races across, helps to push out the first system, but itself will bring the next batch of showers and storms for SA, VIC and NSW. This may also bring severe weather to some locations in the southeast. Over the north, the coverage of rainfall and unsettled weather in a hot soupy airmass is anticipated to ramp up as the upper high weakens. And finally, mostly below average temperatures for much of next week over the SWLD with onshore southwesters.

Euro 00z - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 10 Days

As pointed out in the video, the timing of the moisture in relation to weather systems moving out of the west of the the nation will determine the rainfall distribution. We have tracked a myriad of solutions this week but now starting to see the models settle on the front capturing the trough and dragging it all through together over the weekend and Monday. Then you can see the next system developing next week from the west which then brings another batch of showers and storms as it hits a deeper moisture supply over the east of the nation. Note the moisture hanging on over the northern parts of the nation as the seasonal shift continues and how that moisture then impacts rainfall chances into the nations south and east. The west of the nation will see showery weather over the SWLD but away from there the weather is dry over the west of the nation with limited moisture under high pressure ridging in.

Euro 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Rainfall accumulation continues to remain low confidence with the bias still expected to remain in place over eastern and northern parts of the nation which is no surprise if you have been here a while. Some areas of QLD and NSW could see 1/2 to 1 months worth of rainfall and isolated falls in the outback netting 2 months rainfall during this period. Over SA the rainfall is very conditional and based upon where the low pressure troughs peak and how much moisture they draw in over the state before raining themselves more efficiently over the east. The tropics are active and expected to spread further west into the Kimberly and the Cape York region at the end of the period. After the front in the SWLD early next week, the rainfall chances decrease with persistent ridging at this stage.

A closer look in

GFS 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for more details.

I will have a look at the full model data and all things rainfall after 9pm tonight so come back for that as many are relying on this information at the moment.

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