The fine spell drags on for many in QLD, needing rain badly in many areas and there is a little bit of hope for things to change. The weather is expected to turn more humid along the coast as the winds veer into the east as high pressure passes south of the nation and remnants of a trough passing over NSW stalls out over SEQ.
A new trough will likely form over the inland producing unstable weather during Monday and Tuesday, with scattered showers and a few storms expected for southern and central areas.
The trough will wash out in a northerly flow and head into NSW as a stronger trough develops from the west. This second pulse of unstable air, could bring an increase in the number of showers and storms across southern and central areas of the state mid to late next week.
Over the north, the weather is anticipated to turn more humid and unsettled with showers developing for the coast and thundery showers over inland areas of Cape York.
Lets take a look
Rainfall for the next 10 days
The rainfall is not expected to arrive for southeast areas of the state until Sunday with a southeast change bringing light falls. The moisture from the winds turning easterly is the key to activating an inland trough early next week which will give rise to scattered showers and storms Monday afternoon through Tuesday. The next trough passing through SA into NSW and VIC will arrive later next week bringing more widespread showers and storms for the southern half of the state. Moderate falls are possible. Trade winds in the north will bring showers back to coastal areas with light to moderate falls. Isolated heavy falls with thunderstorms are possible and these are impossible to draw ahead of time.
Euro 00z - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 days
The pattern remains mostly dry and settled for the coming days, despite a fast moving cold front passing through the southeast with a burst of showery windy weather and a few storms. The weekend is where the weather starts to shift nationally. Firstly in the west with a trough deepening over the inland triggering scattered showers and storms, moisture improves the coverage of showers offshore the SWLD generally, the circulation broad but the wet weather will be about. Over in the east a trough will develop over the eastern inland of Australia with a stalled boundary off the east coast of QLD sending easterly winds and that moisture along the coast inland to help produce showers and thunderstorms through inland areas. The moisture will be taking a journey south as upper level northerly winds develop between the high in the east and the approaching trough out of the west with the moisture over NSW and VIC being lifted by that WA trough and low into a multi day rain and storm event. It still appears the best of it will fall east of SA. The rainfall heavy at times and could lead to areas of flooding through NSW and northeast VIC. There is another system to follow later in the period which I will cover off later on this evening. The north hot and becoming humid with showers and storms developing. Showers and storms will also move into QLD during the mid to latter part of next week, especially through southern and central inland areas.
Euro 00z - Rainfall - Next 10 days
Rainfall distribution is largely unchanged from last night with the bulk of it falling over the eastern states and across the SWLD of WA with a trough passing through this weekend. The event over VIC and NSW appears to be the most productive on the board, but keeping an eye on the follow up system over in WA later next week which could tap into deeper moisture coming in from the Indian Ocean. There should be a good coverage of showers and thunderstorms during the coming week over QLD but the falls more scattered and patchy, where the rainfall much more widespread over the southeast inland. Lighter falls for SA, surrounded by all the potential but the second system coming out of SA may provide better rainfall opportunities in that configuration. The northern tropics will see showers return once the upper high breaks down next week, but isolated falls are possible.
Closer look - the sharp edge of the trough quite evident. If the trough can move further west with the moisture through the outlook period, this may see rainfall tick up for areas further west which have missed out so far this season. Though GFS is more generous with the rainfall distribution.
Euro 00z - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 10 days
It is all about the available moisture content and where it is travelling in the coming days, and you can clearly see from the chart below and the modelling again tonight that there is good agreement about the moisture over the east being drawn south, the moisture over the west being drawn southeast into the Bight and bypassing SA, however the lifting mechanism runs into the eastern inland with widespread rainfall developing. Then another surge of moisture is expected to approach WA later next week and the moisture over inland NSW and QLD will retrograde back through Central Australia and be held up and primed to be absorbed by the next system coming out of WA, fingers crossed this behaves better for SA. The tropics turning soupy through the outlook but the upper high needs to break down for showers and storms to return.
I will take a look at the full model suite and the rainfall potential in the next week after 9pm once all the data is in.