QLD - FINE FEW DAYS BUT THE SHOWERS ARE COMING BACK NEXT WEEK - GOOD FALLS POSSIBLE?

The patterns are shifting towards the traditional Spring time expectations - with moisture returning over the tropical north, easterly winds returning to the state, bringing in coastal showers and the first inland trough of the season, that will emerge with inland showers for central and southern parts of the state.


Lets take a look at the chances.

Rainfall for the next 10 days

It is dry for a while still, the state caked in dry air, and high pressure leading to clear and sunny weather with seasonal temperatures returning after that colder snap of the past few days. The weather turns warmer over the weekend, ahead of a southeasterly change moving up the coast, and that will bring the next chance of rainfall for coastal areas of the SE. The weather over the tropics also turning showery with the return of trade winds. Then an inland trough will emerge during Monday with moisture feeding the trough producing showers and thunderstorms. The unsettled weather continues until the end of the month, the heavier falls at this time with this first system further south in NSW.

Euro 00z - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 days

The pressure pattern quiet until this weekend. The weather over the southwest remains warm to hot ahead of a trough developing bringing showers and thunderstorms to the region, not widespread falls but some decent storms could develop over the southern interior. A new high passing through the southeast of the nation will bring a southeast change up the NSW coast driving light showers, which will then move into SEQ during early next week. This front will stall out over QLD while a trough forms over inland QLD. Onshore southeast winds will feed the trough driving showers and thunderstorms. The moisture then moves south in an upper northerly flow and will be lifted by the trough coming out of WA to see showers and storms break out. The rest of the north of the nation turns hot and humid ahead of weather turning thundery into early October.

Euro 00z -Precipitable Water - Next 10 days

The PW Anomalies paint the same picture. The dry air leading to the dry skies and settled weather under the high will take about 5 days to be eroded by moisture coming in from the easterly winds and over the west of the nation via the Indian Ocean. This moisture looks to converge over eastern Australia which is where you will find the heavier of the rainfall next week. Another surge of moisture comes in from the northwest of the nation and moisture left over from the lead system next week remains over the eastern inland leading to another chance of rainfall breaking out at the end of the month into early October from WA through to VIC and NSW. Up north, the humidity returns from the weekend with suppressed build up conditions expected next week.

Euro 00z - Rainfall - Next 10 days

Rainfall largely unchanged from this morning with the pattern shift taking place this weekend over the east with humidity returning. That will break out in showers for the coast of NSW and QLD and inland showers and thunderstorms for central and southern QLD early next week. Another trough over the west bringing showers and thunderstorms with that system expected to move eastwards into the moisture coming over the eastern inland, so this is where at this time, the bulk of the wet weather will unfold next week. Heavy falls are possible. Rainfall will return after this period with a follow up system from WA, through SA and into the eastern inland during early October, just outside of this window. You see no rainfall with the Euro but there is moisture available and with broad troughing, rainfall is likely to break out in that configuration.

QLD View - The rainfall is patchy but it is returning and a sign that things are set to shift this week and adopt a more traditional spring set up as we track through the outlook period - this meaning more humidity, inland troughs and thundery weather returning as per the seasonal shift.

More at 9pm tonight.

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