The wet weather is expected to be heaviest over northern tropical areas as forecast in the tropics weather package tonight.

For the remainder of the state, the weather is forecast to be very much what you expect to see during April. Conditions dry and warm over inland areas with no rainfall of note at this time with relatively clear skies and light winds with high pressure nearby.

Along the coast, just onshore winds and showers from time to time, but overall the pattern not lending itself to widespread heavy rainfall or severe weather risks at this time.

The tropics is where the bulk of the heavy rainfall and severe weather potential will be found during this week, as a tropical low may form in the Gulf and remain slow moving through Easter. But most elsewhere, high pressure wins out and that means a warm and settled long weekend for most.

Showers along the coast will not lead to major washouts for the long weekend at this time.

Lets take a look


Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is forecast to be coastal through this period. That means passing low topped light to moderate showers from time to time, most days through the outlook in the southeasterly flow will keep the rainfall along the coast and scattered cloud into the inland regions. For the inland rainfall will be negligible and the chances of rainfall is expected to be sparse for now. Rainfall chances may increase rapidly depending on the track and location of the tropical low over the Gulf. As outlined in other posts (refer to the previous week of weather) there may be a chance the moisture surges back east and southeast through northern QLD which may bring rainfall back above average for these areas, but there is also a chance the system moves westwards with not much impact forecast for the state. The forecast is low confidence but I would be leaning dry for now over inland regions away from the sub and deep tropics and along the coast.

Thunderstorm Forecast Tuesday

Thunderstorms are forecast to impact the northern tropics with a fairly robust wave of low pressure moving west. Some of the storms could be gusty with heavy late season falls but severe weather is not expected.

Tropical Depression Watch This Week

A tropical wave may gather into a more organised system of low pressure and this could enhance rainfall chances for the Gulf region in particular and areas around the eastern Top End and southern Gulf communities towards Mornington Island in QLD.

MEDIUM TERM - April 18th-25th 2022

Moisture Watch Next Week

We are now seeing the odds of moisture making it into the Indian Ocean from this tropical wave over the course of the next 7 days now drop away as a high pressure system will be sitting too far west and this will allow a front to slip over the southeast early next week leading to the moisture surging into the Coral Sea. Over the west, we have to watch the moisture offshore the west coast which could lead to a large cloud band forming with rain developing after Easter. This could spread further eastwards. The air over the tropics should start to decrease as we move towards ANZAC Day.

Rainfall Anomalies

Very tricky to forecast at the moment so expect this to continue to change from day to day, but it will settle down once we lose the tropical wave and low pressure system over the north. The interesting weather that could bring back more rainfall over the nation's south, could be found with a deepening moisture plume coming out of the Indian Ocean and possibly being picked up by an eastward moving trough. Good to see the east drying out further with no strong bias for above average rainfall just yet but with the SAM leaning positive we must watch trends closely.

Temperature Anomalies

Temperatures are forecast to be above average for a fair chunk of inland Australia which is fair in relation to the placement of the upper ridge. Moisture rotating through northern Australia and over the Indian Ocean will lead to cloudy skies with scattered rainfall, some heavy. The southwest looking cooler than normal with persistent cloud cover and areas of rain with southerly winds. The east coast will see onshore southeast winds but rainfall should be light and more sunshine in between the cloud should see seasonal temperatures for now.

DATA - Refer to the video for further information and it is critical to keep check of the data sets to understand where the next major weather events are emerging from outside of this period. It may be quiet now but I am all about preparation and ensuring that information is shared with you as soon as it is available.

00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

You can get the latest analysis on the daily breakdown for the coming 15 days at the top of the page, but certainly looking much more settled for the disaster zones which is good news in the east. Out west looking more active and certainly looking more active over the tropics with the potential for late season record rainfall about parts of the NT.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks

Moisture content through the nation as at reasonably seasonal levels away from the tropics. For those hanging out for rainfall in the south this was the hope for you but unfortunately it is set to head east bound at this time, though the tropical entity could head west, it will be a long while before we feel its impacts. A bit of dry air has entrenched itself into the Southern Ocean too which is not unusual and may be overriden by the moisture coming out of the jet stream in the medium term.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis plus look out for the post after 8pm EST on all things rainfall.

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Nowhere near as amplified over northern Australia so that is why my forecasts are not reflecting the 1000mm rainfall forecasts that some agencies are printing out for the region. Otherwise more follow up rainfall for the west and coastal front or two over the east but it is hard to find rainfall over the inland in the next week to two weeks if this is right.

00Z Euro - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Noting the rainfall over the northern tropics also excessive for the dry eastern Top End. Noting the rainfall developing next week over WA and some spottier falls over the southeast and east coast with onshore winds. Inland areas dry.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to the video for more context and analysis plus look out for the post after 8pm EST on all things rainfall.

A closer look in - the heavy rainfall over the north could bring some record falls to tropical areas around the Gulf.

More broadly, dry and stable for inland areas through next week.

More coming up from 8pm EDT with a look at the models and rainfall, I will only share information that is in reasonable agreement as too much is too confusing and I only want to share what is plausible at this time, so stay tuned for that.

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