QLD - ESSENTIALLY DRY FOR MOST IN THE COMING 10 DAYS, BUT MOISTURE MAY RETURN NEXT WEEK OVER SE AREA

OVERVIEW

The weather is remaining very dry and settled for most of this period through inland areas as we track high pressure throughout the interior of the state.


Showers along the coast are forecast to return from next week but the coverage of these mainly light and patchy.


A lot of moisture is flirting with the coastal fringe, but the bulk of the major rainfall events should be offshore to the east running into the fronts crashing into NZ.


SHORT TERM

So, we are dry for a while and with the fast flow pattern developing over the southeast and south of the nation, this will support the drier bias to continue for inland areas right through this period.


Temperatures may remain near average for most areas, but a cooler bias is forecast for central coastal QLD up to the subtropics with the colder nights to continue.

LONG TERM


LONG TERM AND AREAS TO WATCH.

It appears the frontal weather is forecast to emerge through southern parts of the nation with moisture streaming into the jet stream and connecting into frontal weather as they move from west to east.


The drier bias continues over the northern areas of the nation with mainly settled skies, some high cloud from time to time but with ridging overhead the pattern is expected to remain dry.


Overall, the pattern is reflecting more of what we should be seeing at this time of year across the nation with the fast flow pattern driving wet weather over the south and the drier easterly winds continuing over the north. Watching the east of the nation very closely with low pressure still sitting through the Coral and Tasman Seas.


WEATHER VIDEO PM - THURSDAY 14TH JULY 2022

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

So similar to yesterday, not much rainfall expected with the bulk of the moisture sliding southeast parallel to the coast offshore where thick cloud bands will be evident but impacting the ocean and not the land mass. A few showers may return to the coast from next week as the flow pattern tends more northeast to easterly. But overall, the dry spell is forecast to continue. So, it is easy forecasting at the moment for inland areas.

Frost Risk Friday Morning.

Light frost is possible all the way up the Great Dividing Range with the cold and dry airmass shifting north today and with high pressure running into the eastern inland, the timing is perfect for frost in areas where it is not usually observed. Severe frost is possible over large areas of the southern inland and that could creep into Central Areas, mainly at elevation and through the southern border with NSW.

FORECAST

Moisture Watch Next Week

Moisture is forecast to stream through the jet stream and into the frontal passages as we track through next week, the relationship between the moisture and frontal weather will determine the rainfall spread. In the east, a parcel of moisture will move in from the Coral Sea, but it is likely that the deeper moisture will swing offshore and impact the open waters of the Tasman and into NZ.

Moisture Watch Following Week

Moisture values are forecast to remain well above normal throughout the Coral Sea in response to the very high SSTs throughout areas south of PNG and towards Noumea. The moisture may clip the eastern parts of QLD and could be lifted into showers but the flow pattern keeping the most active areas of rainfall off to the east. Out west, a series of cold fronts could tap into the moisture streaming in from the Indian Ocean and leading to elevated rainfall. The SAM tending negative will see frontal weather shifting northwards.

Rainfall Anomalies Next Week

A trend towards above average rainfall chances throughout the southwest and southeast of the country but this is a marginal risk with the signals coming together to produce higher rainfall for southeast and southwest of the nation. It will come down to the moisture syncing with the frontal boundaries as they move through from west to east.

Rainfall Anomalies Following Week

That pattern of higher rainfall chances continuing over the southwest and south and southeast of the nation with the frontal weather standing up quite tall with the negative SAM. Moisture streaming through the jet stream and linking into cold fronts seems to be the area of interest when it comes to above average rainfall developing.

Temperature Anomalies Next Week

Warmer signals continuing to grow across the nation next week as we see those elevated temperatures over parts of WA being drawn through central Australia and into the southeast ahead of frontal weather. It is now looking more likely that the flow pattern is more zonal and this will now see that warmer air come into the southeast and eastern inland ahead of stronger cold fronts and rainfall later in this period. Cool bias continues over parts of northeast Australia.

Temperature Anomalies Following Week

The warmer bias continues over the northern parts of the nation with the cooler bias more likely over the south and southwest, with the temperature gradient expected to tighten. If this process continues to strengthen, then we will likely see more rainfall than what future guidance suggests across southern Australia.

DATA - Refer to the video for further information


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to the video for further information and context.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks

The moisture content is expected to increase over the west of the nation where the frontal weather of higher frequency there and low-pressure troughs, linking into the moisture surging south out of the Indian Ocean leading to more cloud cover and higher rainfall chances. This moisture is expected to sweep over southern Australia and over into the southeast areas of the nation, with moderate rainfall possible from time to time, but the higher coverage of rainfall and chances of rainfall is expected over the SWLD of WA. Interesting feature to watch, the moisture that pops up here and there over NSW and QLD with the models now suggesting that we could see rainfall break out over parts of this region next week. But that remains to be seen, however moisture will be surging southeast parallel to the coast with a larger scale feature offshore.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

A closer look in - I am not factoring in the rainfall yet that models are expressing for this time next week, however, will monitor for tomorrow and have more to say then. I think the bulk of the rainfall will be found offshore through the period but if an upper trough comes in from the southwest of the state via SA, this could connect with the western flank of moisture offshore leading to rainfall developing this time next week.

More coming up from 8pm EST with a look at the models and rainfall.

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