QLD - DRY WEEK FOR MOST OF YOU, SOME SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST WITH INCREASING CLOUDS NEXT WEEK.

OVERVIEW

A dry week for many with a high pressure ridge starting to settle into the state and dry air also becoming established over the state, leading to clearer skies, light winds and seasonal weather. A nice warm up is expected from later this week throughout the weekend and next week, indicating that the seasons may be starting to wiggle a little bit out of the persistent Winter time feels.


There is some chance we see cloud extensive across the country from west to east via the jet stream coming through southern areas of the state and this may start to drop light rainfall next week, but for the bulk of the next 7-8 days, it looks dry for many areas.


Just a few showers at times along the coast, mainly north of Mackay are likely with the trade winds continuing.


SHORT TERM

So as mentioned not much in the coming week, the high pressure is the dominant force and will lead to the classic dry Winter weather that QLD is known for in July and August. But this may start to shift from next week as a cloud band and moisture feed from the northwest and west begins to cover the state.


Some chance that the easterly winds over northern districts will also carry deeper moisture throughout the region, which is suppressed under ridging, starts to move into a more favourable environment closer to the jet stream to activate into areas of cloud and areas of mainly light rainfall for southern and border regions with NSW.


LONG TERM/AREAS TO WATCH

A fairly active pattern looks to establish from the west during next week, with a deep moisture profile extending from the northwest of the nation and also evidence now that moisture may also run over northern and northeastern Australia and spreading southwards into the southern and eastern inland.


The location of troughs and frontal weather in relation to the moisture will remain of interest. That determines where the best of the rainfall develops and where it is most persistent.


Severe weather potential is increasing for areas over SWLD of WA and possibly for southern and southeastern areas of the nation with the higher chances of low pressure running through the westerly wind belt.


Humidity values are also expected to increase over northern Australia with the upper ridge remaining in place but, the feature could weaken and this may open the door for more cloud and the chance of showers returning as well to northern and interior parts of the nation.


FORECAST VIDEO PM - MONDAY 25TH JULY 2022

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

A few showers from time to time over the northern coastal areas north of Mackay can be expected with the southeast to easterly winds. The falls accumulating to moderate totals but overall nothing outrageous or widespread or long duration at this time so if you are beach bound, plenty of dry days too. A large cloud band may develop over interior and southeastern areas state could lead to patches of light rainfall be observed under this high and middle level cloud. The weather may begin to become wetter later next week which this chart does not account for, with more unstable air coming through from the west at the end of next week.

Placing the rainfall as a broad risk with the jet stream pushing the moisture through from the west of the nation and upper-level troughs passing throughout the interior leading to increasing rainfall chances running through the beginning of next week and possibly increasing if the moisture is spreading from the east is likely to merge with the moisture from the west. Signals are increasing for widespread falls developing into the first week of August which is just outside of this period.

Severe Weather Watch - Frost Becoming Severe Friday through Sunday.

The risk of severe weather via frost damage is running high later this week as cold air following a cold front during Thursday with a developing southerly flow projecting the colder air into the southern and southeast then eastern inland. A cold set of nights under sinking air motion, clear skies and light winds will allow the ground too effectively and this leading to another round of severe frost and freeze conditions. Some areas could see damage from the frosty conditions to sensitive plants and crops exposed to these nasty cold nights. Conditions will be clear and sunny through the daytime and above average temperatures possible by Sunday.

MEDIUM TERM

July 31st - August 15th, 2022

Moisture Watch

The moisture is largely unchanged throughout the medium term as we track the larger weather events over WA and this then filtering moisture throughout the country from northwest to southeast ahead of cold fronts. There will also be moisture spreading through the Coral Sea and into northern Australia via the easterly wind regime! That moisture over northern areas of the nation needs to be watched as we will see that turning back towards the country via being drawn south and southeast in upper northwest winds leading to rainfall chances coming up for QLD and the NT.

That moisture over northern Australia will spread south and southeast into the NT and QLD with the dry season weather starting to shift as we have moisture coming up. Further heavy moisture continuing over southern Australia, the weather here likely leading to higher rainfall than normal over eastern and southeast Australia. Another wave of frontal weather may drag in moisture from the Central Indian Ocean into the SWLD.

Temperature Anomalies

Temperatures are forecast to remain well above normal for many areas this weekend and into next week as a long fetch northwest to westerly flow distributes the warmth throughout much of inland Australia. Another wave of frontal weather moving into SWLD of WA leading to cooler than normal weather, actually quite cold over the coastal areas under persistent westerly winds. Seasonal weather over the east coastal areas of the nation. Humidity values may start to rise over northern Australia.

The heat values remain higher than normal over the north of the nation with elevated SSTs coming into play and with moisture spreading throughout the north of the nation, this could lead to a marked increase in humidity values ending the dry season for a period. That warmth may begin to clash with the colder and drier weather surging northwards over south of the country behind strong cold fronts and low pressure. So more dynamic weather is possible with severe weather chances also coming up as the red and blue shading begins to get closer!

Rainfall Anomalies

The moisture values remaining very high throughout the interior will eventually lead to cloud increasing initially, with rainfall likely to increase in coverage over the nation's central and eastern areas. The rainfall over the southeast areas on and west of the divide could be well above normal with low pressure stacking up in the westerly wind regime and topography enhancing rainfall. Further strong cold fronts and low pressure peaking over the SWLD leading to more widespread falls and with the SSTs continuing to run above normal offshore the west and southwest of the Ag Areas here, the rainfall could continue at above average values (as seen over the weekend 75mm observed in some areas).

Rainfall over the central and eastern inland of the nation is tending above average with a northern movement of the westerly wind belt flicking some low-pressure systems through southern parts of WA through SA and VIC and that may continue through this period, however given we are likely to have moisture running over the NT and into QLD, this could be lifted into widespread rainfall with low pressure forecast to be over QLD, NSW and VIC. Further moisture may activate into cloud bands offshore WA and this coming through with the next wave of rain and thunderstorms moving in towards mid month.

DATA - Refer to the video for further information.


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

A significant period of weather is developing through the short and medium term and careful analysis is required for each system and not getting too carried away with all the components in play. So, check out the video for the short and medium term.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks

The moisture profile still remains excessive for this time of year and we have seen in previous months what that has resulted in nationally in terms of severe weather and flooding. That may be the case but in areas that are currently waiting for more general rainfall. Areas of concern for severe weather related to flooding and high levels of humidity is expected to be over the SWLD, through much of the southeast inland of VIC and NSW. SA may see the worst of the weather bypass the region but overall, the wettest period of the year may be on the cards for SA so certainly an interesting few days of weather modelling to come to see if this holds.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

A closer look in - it will likely be a drier week for most areas through to early next week and this is where we may see rainfall return for inland areas as a trough moves in. Before then, a few showers may continue in the onshore flow but for the most part, a lot of what you see here is forecast to come in the medium term. Humidity also increasing over the northern tropics - so make the most of the dry.

More coming up from 8pm EST with a look at the models and rainfall.




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