QLD - DRY WEEK CONTINUES FOR MOST AREAS INLAND, FEW SHOWERS ON THE COAST. RAIN MAY RETURN NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW

A drier week is on the way with a high pressure ridge laying over the top of the state. A few showers along the east coast in onshore winds will likely continue but falls overall, relatively light.


As we move into the early part of next week, we may start to see widespread showers and cloud developing over inland areas of the nation, with that clipping the southern inland of the state.


SHORT TERM

So not a whole lot going on as we track a more typical weather pattern for Winter setting up finally across the nation, as we see the westerly wind regime developing and strengthening over the continent. The zonal flow will increase over the nation and this drying out the east coast in the prevailing westerly wind regime.


A few showers may start to develop over the interior as we see the jet stream become more unstable and moisture streaming into the region from the northwest through to the southeast of the country. This may start to impact the region from this time next week but certainly chances come up from the latter part of next week.


LONG TERM/AREAS TO WATCH

An aggressive weather pattern is expected to unfold over much of the nation as moisture surges through the jet stream from the Indian Ocean and into the interior. We will see moisture also being pulled into the eastern and northern inland of the nation via upper-level easterly winds which will sweep into northern WA before all of that moisture spreads southwards and southeast into the central and southeastern interior.


With low pressure passing throughout the country from west to east, this may see the cloud coverage increase and follow up rainfall continuing through the first week of August spill over into the second week of August is also expected at this time.


Determining who gets what and when remains to be seen and that will change with the modelling as we see multiple weather systems in the medium-term data sets, so you can expect some very colorful charts and then not so colorful charts as systems come and go.


WEATHER VIDEO PM - TUESDAY 26TH JULY 2022


FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

So the majority of this week is relatively dry and stable under the ridge that is setting up over the country. The nation is forecast to shift into a more mobile pressure pattern with strong westerly winds emerging. Moisture associated with the Indian Ocean Dipole and through the upper level northerly and northeast winds will start to gather over the state and with the unstable jet stream starting to form over the state next week, a few showers may begin to develop with the chance of some thunder. Before then, onshore winds will bring the showery weather along the coast, some of those moderate falls are expected to be found over the tropical QLD coast. Lighter falls expected along the southeast coast.

The southern inland could see some reasonable rainfall in the coming week, but that is dependent on the location of the moisture in relation to the fast flow pattern emerging through the country. Some chance of troughs deepening over the southeast and eastern inland could increase rainfall across much of the southern parts of the state too which would be favouring on and west of the divide. Coastal areas look to be spared the worst of the wet weather for now.

WEATHER ISSUES

Severe Frost and Freeze Conditions

Still eyeing off the risk of severe frosts Friday through Sunday over the region identified, but this may come down in risk. With higher humidity values creeping in during the weekend, we may only see one nasty cold night for the region Friday into Saturday but overall, the risk is still sufficient to flag this issue into the weekend for many of you.

MEDIUM TERM FORECAST

AUGUST 1ST-15TH 2022

Moisture Watch

Moisture is forecast to sweep through the central and eastern parts of the country as strong cold fronts and low pressure take the deepest moisture from SA and into the eastern states generally. This will be the motion of the moisture over the north and east. Additional moisture may start to pool from north of Australia and work into Central Australia creating additional rainfall chances for the same regions heading into the second week of August, this may bypass SA. Additional cold fronts will send in the next round of moisture out of the Indian Ocean into the SWLD.

That moisture over northern Australia will spread south and southeast into the NT and QLD with the dry season weather starting to shift as we have moisture coming up. Further heavy moisture continuing over southern Australia, the weather here likely leading to higher rainfall than normal over eastern and southeast Australia. Another wave of frontal weather may drag in moisture from the Central Indian Ocean into the SWLD.

Rainfall Anomalies

No change to the guidance from yesterday with the bulk of the above average rainfall chances found over central, southeastern and eastern inland parts of the nation. The heaviest of the rainfall under the current synoptic setup is expected to be on and west of the divide with the westerly wind regime and deep moisture profile combining to bring the inland rainfall chances up. Frontal weather over southern Australia also lifting rainfall chances to seasonal to somewhat above seasonal values through the first week of August. Those areas exposed to the westerly wind regime likely to see the heaviest of the rainfall.

The rainfall anomalies are tending to be above average for large sections of southern Australia with further evidence of frontal weather passing through from west to east. The frontal weather connecting with moisture out of the Indian Ocean likely leading to elevated rainfall over the interior. Humidity values over the tropics also increasing and we may see coastal morning showers about the Top End and Kimberly and afternoon showers but generally isolated falls for now.

Temperature Anomalies

The warmup is expected to continue for the remainder of this week over interior parts and then spread through central and eastern parts of the country as we track relatively dry air for now over northern Australia. Moisture building ahead and with cold fronts out of the west will start to push eastwards and behind these fronts, cooler than normal conditions are expected for large parts of the SWLD. Seasonal weather along the east coast.

The warming trend continues over the northern parts of the nation as the westerly wind regime continues to take hold of the nation, so the warmer air likely dammed north of the subtropical jet. Cooler conditions in WA with frequent rainfall spreading through the westerly wind belt thanks to frontal weather also bringing up the chance of above average rainfall and below average temperatures. This may start to spread further east into SA and VIC later in the period.

DATA - Refer to the video for further information and context relating to this fast flow and dynamic weather pattern.


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

More can be found in the video at the top of the page which is looking into the short and medium term in greater detail once again.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks

Once again, the moisture distribution through the medium term remains of low confidence as we try to see what the models do with the wavier flow and the major elements in place being the moisture surging through the jet stream and feeding into the frontal weather. Do we see the negative SAM unfold? Well, the GFS is recognizing that tonight but not printing out the frontal weather and that is why you see the moisture staying further north and not much rainfall coming through the nation into the second week of August, where 6hrs ago it showed a wetter outlook. The relationship between the moisture and the frontal weather is key to rainfall increasing.

00Z ICON - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 7 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

A closer look in - the GFS suggests we could have showers and thunderstorms back from this weekend and off and on next week for QLD however I am not so sure on that idea just yet. Something to watch, but the forecast confidence on rainfall for the state is currently low.

More coming up from 8pm EST with a look at the models and rainfall.

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