QLD - DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE INLAND, RAINFALL MAINLY COASTAL UP NORTH.

ANALYSIS

The high-pressure system, dry air surging north from the cold outbreak over the southeast and the lack of low pressure systems throughout the region is leading to the driest period of the year so far for this time of year.


No major rainfall events are forecast through this time, so a great opportunity for many throughout areas heavily impacted by the above average rainfall and flooding can dry out with a seasonal week on the way.


SHORT TERM

There may be a few showers and thunderstorms over the far northern parts of Cape York over the coming few days with the moisture nosing southwards into the region and via easterly winds over the Torres Strait causing wet weather too.


Otherwise the rest of the state, under high pressure frost may be of concern over the Ag Areas and up as far north as Hughenden through the latter part of the weekend and next week which is quite cold for June.


We will see cloud increase at times via the jet stream with moisture out of the west absorbed into the upper level winds, but because the high is overhead, there is little support for rainfall right now.


LONG TERM

We will be seeing a lot of wet weather developing in the west of the nation associated with the developing cold fronts and moisture streaming in from the Indian Ocean with a series of large cloud bands moving through with rainfall chances increasing over the next week. This will be moving into the Bight later next week and we should start to see rainfall chances increasing from the latter part of next week and more likely into the weekend over the southeast and eastern inland.


So make the most of the drier weather developing over the state in the coming week as it will not last so long.


AREAS TO WATCH

The Indian Ocean Dipole being in negative phase will be the driver supporting rainfall spreading throughout the interior from northwest to southeast. The impacts of this moisture spreading into cold fronts will be the wild card throughout the medium to long term.


The Southern Annular Mode tending negative is shifting the rain bearing westerly wind belt further north leading to windy weather with showery weather, this rainfall could become more widespread if the moisture is ingested into frontal weather and there have been some models supporting this idea.


WEATHER VIDEO PM - THURSDAY 9TH JUNE 2022

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

A big bag of nothing for the inland with dry air and high pressure but better rainfall chances are expected up north through Cape York with light to moderate rainfall and the chance of a few above average falls. There may also be a few showers in the onshore winds with the FNQ coast likely to pick up the heaviest of the rainfall. Overall, the remainder of the nation is likely to stay dry and stable through to about the 21st of the month, this is where we start to see rainfall spread back in from the west into the southeast and eastern inland, likely through NSW initially but it could start to lift northwards into southern QLD.

The dry weather extends back into much of the NT and through northwest Australia for now! I make that reference because it will be a zone that will become full of rainfall and higher moisture values IF the climate guidance is right by the time we get to July through November.


Frost Risk - Early Next Week

This is where we will see the frost risk become widespread and increase in intensity as high pressure sits over the state. More specific charting will be available as we get closer to the event as I want to see where the high-pressure system ends up over the southeast or eastern inland which could impact the spread and intensity of the risk.

MEDIUM TERM

June 16th-23rd 2022

Rainfall Anomalies

Rainfall anomalies above the norm remains a higher chance over the SWLD where persistent frontal weather and deep moisture is forecast to linger through the region. Mainly seasonal values elsewhere as the weather from the west, comes into the south and southeast with that wetter bias likely to be observed over SA and VIC as well as pockets of NSW/ACT expected towards the end of the month.

Temperature Anomalies

I warned that the blue shading would be removed in the forecasts moving along this week for the medium term and a sharp shift back to warmer than normal weather is expected for large chunks of the nation as a broad northwesterly flow developing, pumping that warmer air from the northwest down into Central Australia and into the southeast and eastern inland.

DATA - Refer to video for more information and the model comparison and context about all the forecast products you see from me


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

More information can be found in the video content to bring you the very latest context to the information being shared with you.


00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks

The moisture content being above normal will continue to be found in WA and that streaming through the Indian Ocean through the jet stream and into the western and central interior from the middle of next week. This may lead to more widespread cloud and rainfall developing across the nation from later next week. Until then, dry and colder air to persist over the east and southeast for the long weekend and into next week and the chance of more widespread rainfall not on the horizon, until we see the moisture kick out the dry air, which will happen, but looking more likely from mid next week through parts of SA and then the southeast from later next week into the weekend.



00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

A closer look in - a nice dry spell to unfold if this is right throughout the coming 10-14 days but I would be keeping a very close eye on the moisture through the north, northwest and west of the nation for rainfall opportunities to return for the end of month.

More coming up from 8pm EST with a look at the models and rainfall.




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