A very cold start for many locations this morning with a high now scooting out to sea, a low pressure system moving over the eastern inland this afternoon and this evening. There are some signals that cloud may be a little thicker over the coming day, this seeing temperatures below average and maybe some rainfall opportunities.
Tomorrow offers the best chance of rainfall through southern inland QLD with a moderate layer of moisture rolling through as a low over NSW opens into a trough and moves east, bringing a band of light and patchy rainfall through Downs and SE QLD region.
Then the fast flow pattern over the southern parts of the nation takes over again, bringing more of the same weather we have seen here for the best part of the month away from the two rain events in the past four weeks.
Lets have a look at modelling
00Z GFS Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 16 days
The pressure pattern beyond the low pressure system whipping through is expected to remain largely unchanged as an upper high continues to dominate the north, the fast flow pattern to the south continues to rage on, and so QLD sits in the battle ground where the moisture is diverted south, the high heat diverted north so seasonal weather for the most part in a westerly breeze is what one can expect from the weekend onwards. Maybe some moisture returning to the western inland next week but that will be captured by the fast flow pattern to the south. A pattern flip is 10-15 days away at the earliest.
00z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 10 days
Similar modelling from the Euro tonight with the fast flow pattern redeveloping thanks to the SAM tending negative again, so dry weather to return after a little rain over southern inland areas with that low passing through. I will mention that when the rainfall becomes more favourable for the QLD region, it will be productive so it may be a case of once the tap is turned on, it may not turn off! That may happen from the back half of August, but as I keep saying in my climate updates, September onwards is usually when we see the rainfall resume over the eastern inland.
00z Euro Rainfall for the coming 10 days
Rainfall light and patchy for the south tomorrow and then, that is it. Dry westerly winds take over and sadly no rainfall is anticipated for the next 10-15 days for a large part of QLD. So we keep waiting.
Rainfall for the next 10 days
As mentioned above, not much on offer I am afraid with dry weather to return to the whole state post the patchy light rainfall over the south on Friday. We look to mid August for our turn at the earliest I am afraid. But things can change between now and then.
More weather details to come.