With some luck.......we may have some rainfall to talk about starting this weekend with a shift to easterly winds, but before then, a dry pop of colder air is working north through VIC into NSW and this will reach QLD during Tuesday afternoon and evening. This will lift the chances of a late season frost for the south and elevated areas of the central districts.
Conditions will return to seasonal values later this week as we track high pressure through to the southeast, directing an east to northeast flow.
The moisture is expected to develop in this flow pattern and a trough is expected to form inland of the coast, seeing showers and thunderstorms develop over inland QLD, with showery periods along the coast. The pressure pattern remaining slow moving for much of next week.
Rainfall for the next 10 days
Rainfall is non existent for the coming 6 days at this stage with a dry airmass, sinking air motion and below average temperatures for the south and central areas. Once the high moves through to the southeast of the region, this will then allow the flow to tend onshore bringing in moisture through the lower levels, promoting showers along the coast. An inland trough is expected to develop this time next week with showers and thunderstorms developing and at this stage taking us through most of next week.
Euro 00z - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 days
Drying out nicely from the south and southwest with the coldest air passing through this evening over the southeast states and moving north through eastern inland of QLD and then onwards to the west, the air modifying and warming up. Out west on the western flank of the high pressure system, a dry warm airmass is expected, that warmer air spreading through the southern states during the coming week into the weekend with dry weather for most areas. A weak front is anticipated for Friday over the southeast of the nation with a few showers. The weather then turns quite humid and unsettled over eastern areas of the nation as a trough deepens and feeds off moisture, on the other side of the nation another trough deepens over SWLD of WA with showers and storms developing next week. The difference between the Euro and GFS, is that the GFS sees the moisture and connects that with the troughs, and on tonight's run I side with GFS out of the two. The tropics also turning more humid and unsettled through next week.
Euro 00z - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 10 days
The shift in the pattern away from the dry airmass flooding through the nation will take about 5-6 days to overcome. The weather turning more seasonal atmospherically during the weekend and then clearly next week you can see the moisture pouring in over the eastern inland and being lifted by a trough and the Indian Ocean seeing the moisture surging from the northwest Indian Ocean.
Euro 00z - Rainfall- Next 10 days
Not much change from this morning, the weather likely to be dry until the onshore winds return thanks to the SAM trending positive and this will keep an easterly flow in play. That will not happen until later Sunday if not a week from now. Until then, it is dry.
I will have another wrap of the models once they all come in and a look at the GFS latest run tonight after 9pm.