QLD - DRY SPELL UNFOLDS, COLD NIGHTS AND DRY DAYS. CLEARING OVER THE NORTH.

ANALYSIS

The patchy rainfall that brought above average rainfall over parts of the north in recent days is now offshore and the dry surge is moving northwards into the sub and deep tropics supporting a nice dry long weekend for much of the state and comfortable conditions returning to northern areas with a sunny sky.


A ridge of high pressure is in full control and that means the forecast is benign but as mentioned, make the most of it as the weather is set to turn wet as we move through Winter and these breaks in the wet weather is quite rare when the drivers are in place to support widespread rainfall.


SHORT TERM

The risk of cold nights and local frost over pockets of the inland above 400m is possible through the weekend with the weather sunny through the days with temperatures moving towards the average. A series of cold fronts over the southeast may begin to knock a high pressure ridge north and east out of the southeast inland, with a northwest flow developing and a warmer trend possible at the end of next week.


In terms of rainfall many areas could dry for a while, including coastal areas, if we don’t see the winds turn into the east next week.


LONG TERM

The next change is forecast to approach the west of the nation tonight and that will set up a procession of fronts coming into the Bight early next week with moisture spreading through the southern states, but the frontal weather is likely to weaken as the moisture approaches the southeast and east of the country. That means the rainfall will largely be confined to southern SA, southern VIC.


A second stronger system is expected to push through WA from Sunday and move swiftly behind the lead system and this may bring more cloud into the state with a third system following bringing the next chance of rainfall later next week for western and southern parts of the state. Some areas could see a dry 10 day period coming up which would be welcome for many.


AREAS TO WATCH

The Indian Ocean is forecast to play a huge part in the forecasts in terms of rainfall in the west of the nation, with moisture from the elevated SSTs south of Indonesia spreading south into the jet stream then running into cold fronts. This will ultimately spread into the south and east of the nation from mid month.


Otherwise it is a very quiet forecast for many of us in the coming week


WEATHER VIDEO PM - WEDNESDAY 8TH JUNE 2022

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is hard to find, and many places go without over the coming week to 10 days. The coastal areas also could be dry for this period as well, with only isolated showers and thunderstorms over the very far north of Cape York where easterly winds and deeper moisture remains through the Torres Strait. Otherwise, there is not much to talk about, but as mentioned, enjoy it while it lasts as Spring is looking very wet on the climate guidance.

No rainfall at this time is expected for inland areas with ridging and a dry airmass in place.

Frost Forecast Thursday Morning

Frost is expected to feature over elevated terrain about Central and far Southeast Inland parts of the state with another cold clear night on the way. No severe frosts are expected.

Frost Risk - Monday to Wednesday Next Week

A delayed forecast to the risk of widespread frost, some possibly severe. The ridge of high pressure is now expected to form over the southeast inland from Sunday and this will allow temperatures to fall below -5C in parts of NSW and down to -2C in pockets of elevated QLD, eastern SA and northern VIC.

MEDIUM TERM

June 15th-22nd 2022

Rainfall Anomalies

The drier weather is expected to continue over the northern and eastern areas of the nation thanks to the presence of high pressure leading to settled weather. The west is looking wetter with the position of the moisture and the cold fronts combining together to bring the higher rainfall chances.

Temperature Anomalies

Warmer days are on the way as promised and it will take place once we see the high move into the Tasman Sea with a northwest flow dominating the nation, that will be in response to the rise of the westerly wind belt. So drier weather then warmer weather developing ahead of the cold fronts bringing colder shift towards the end of the month.

DATA - Refer to the video for further information on the daily breakdown.


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

As mentioned, head to the video to track the daily breakdown through the short and medium term to cut down reading time.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks

The big item on the board tonight is the influence of all that high moisture loads in the Indian Ocean and the waters north of the nation as well, being drawn into the next wave of frontal weather coming through the south and west of the country in the medium term. That will be chopping and changing from run to run, but ultimately that is your next weather maker on the board for the country as a whole. In the west in the short term, large moisture content involved with the trough will lead to widespread showers and thunderstorms over the days ahead.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00z Euro - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for more information and analysis

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

A closer look in - quiet weather wise across the state with the showery weather over the FNQ coast in onshore winds from time to time, but I will mention that the moisture over the northern and western parts of the nation will eventually fold over the state via the jet stream as we move through the coming 2-3 weeks.

More coming up from 8pm EST with a look at the models and rainfall.


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