The same old song and dance coming up, not much shift in the modelling overnight. The dry weather over the inland is to continue despite the deeper moisture supply aloft.
The drier air has eroded the boundary that has been sitting through inland areas, very pretty sunrise though for central QLD.
As mentioned, the sinking air motion under high pressure leading to a settled spell of weather throughout the region. The weather will turn warm to hot over the inland with a westerly wind to bring in the dry and warm air from the central interior.
The showers along the east coast could pick up a bit as the winds veer into the northeast as high pressure pushes out further, helped along by a cold front passing over southeast Australia.
Over the inland, the weather could get quite warm to hot and that heat building as the frontal weather stays further south for a number of days.
Sunday, the temperatures could be into the low 30s once again for large parts of the inland ahead of that drier surge that comes through from this time next week, no rainfall yet along this boundary but these are the boundaries that create the severe weather in October through December when moisture increases and storm season gets up and going.
Those showers may stay in place until the weekend as the high pressure still brings in a northeast flow. The flow pattern will then become variable and turn into the east next week as the southeast deals with a messy synoptic pattern.
The models are not supportive of rainfall for inland areas in the coming week, this is due to now seeing a drier airmass surge through early next week, where in the last few days we had more moisture being lifted, all options are still on the table for the medium term so expect more changes.
Lets take a look at what that means for us.
12Z GFS Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 16 days
The pattern is largely unchanged for the coming days. Dry and quiet for most of the nation until later this week when the frontal weather over WA that will drive the moderate rainfall there finally moves across the southern parts of SA and into the southeast states, a deeper moisture profile could spread the rainfall out through Friday into Saturday. Another weaker front keeps the showers going over the southern states Saturday and Sunday. The weather north of the fronts passing over the southern states will be warm to hot and dry under the high pressure, so northern NSW, QLD, northern SA and into outback WA and the NT, the dry and hot weather will continue. Next week, the weather turns complex with modelling unable to come into agreement with the long wave passing through over the southeast. The system will ultimately drive a drier cooler change through the nation's south, but how much rainfall it will deliver to the southern and southeast states remains to be seen. There are more rainfall opportunities beyond this system to finish the month.
12z GFS Rainfall for the coming 16 days
I won't add much, but rainfall largely unchanged from last night, this will continue to bounce around in response to the system passing through later in the weekend into the early parts of next week, once that settles down in the guidance, then a more definitive rainfall forecast can be drawn for the southern and eastern states. Up north, humidity may bring scattered showers and thunder later in the outlook.
12z GFS Precipitable Water Anomalies next 16 days
From run to run, the models have high levels of moisture then the following run, introduces widespread dry air throughout the eastern and northern parts of the nation. This is why you see inland rainfall on one run, and nothing on the following run. So again lets see what the next few runs bring. It will continue to chop and change. The medium term also offers more moisture passing through the nation to finish the month but again the capability of pinning down a forecast at the moment beyond 7 days is tricky.
12z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 10 days
The forecast pattern is largely unchanged for the coming week, though we are starting to see rumbling of inland moisture on the Euro for Central Australia, this has been appearing across other modelling as well, so will have to take a look at that in the coming days because that could offer rainfall opportunities for northern NSW and QLD. But for now the bulk of the rainfall is expected over the southern parts of the nation with the frontal passages.
12z Euro Rainfall for the coming 10 days
Rainfall largely unchanged for the nation, but keep an eye on that inland rainfall chances in the coming few days as that could provide a chance of rainfall spreading from Central Australia into northern NSW and southern QLD during the next two weeks. That is the nature of modelling right now that it is tricky to forecast when the ingredients for large scale rainfall to develop over inland areas will occur, but there have been multiple signals and I will call it signals for now. More on that later this morning.
12z Euro Precipitable Water Values next 10 days
Again the chopping and changing from run to run is why you are seeing the rainfall distribution chop and change. But again there are rainfall opportunities across the board as we finish the month and I do expect there to be more widespread rainfall developing as we go through September. The south will have a wetter end to August and that will creep over the southern inland areas of the nation.
Rainfall for the next 10 days
Not much to write about for inland areas but keep an eye on the inland rainfall through SA and the NT next week, I am not going to remove the shading for rainfall over inland areas due to that, and also the risk of showers along a drier surge next week is not 0. The rainfall concentrated for coastal areas with an onshore flow developing. The rainfall over the FNQ will be moderate at times, that moisture spreading through northern parts of the nation with showers developing for the Top End and Cape York next week.
I will have the latest on the ENSO outlook and this will look at the risk of La Nina for the spring and summer. This will have an impact on the weather for spring and summer. Details at lunch.