The weather is fairly benign at the moment for large chunks of the state with a stable ridge over the north dropping off rainfall chances for many, compared to previous weeks. We have the chance of a shower here and there along the coast but much of the inland is mostly dry for the coming week.

Where it gets tricky is how much moisture gets lifted by a developing trough over the inland ahead of a cold blast moving through the southeast from mid week. Some chance we see reasonable cloud developing but the coverage of rainfall may not be as widespread as previous events but will watch trends.

All of that rainfall moves off the coast this weekend with another OK looking weekend for much of you in QLD.

But as we move into this time next week, an upper trough is forecast to approach from the NT into western parts of the state with showers and thunderstorms developing in response to moisture being drawn in via the onshore flow, this leading to a better chance of widespread and above average rainfall potential.

Some modelling is going all in with heavier falls from this time next week through to the end of next week, other modelling just showing scattered showers and storms about but the rainfall is uneven in these solutions. The weather will looking wetter as we head through the northeast and east of the state and drier the further west you go at this time. But watching the trends closely.

Lets take a look


Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall remains fairly light on in the coming days, though cloud increases for the inland with a trough, rainfall should be on the patchy side for now. The cloud and patchy rainfall coverage moves towards the east as drier southerly air surges northwards from the southern parts of the nation, this leading to clear skies and below average temperatures. Now as we kick into the weekend, there is an upper trough moving through the central parts of the nation. The winds over the state turn into the east with a high tracking over the southeast states, helping to support the easterly wind shift. The challenge in the forecast rainfall for the state is how much moisture becomes involved in the upper trough as that moves in from the west by Sunday into next week and do we see more widespread above average rainfall resume? There is an upper low forecast to form over the eastern inland of the nation leading to widespread falls emerging but the confidence in that is not overly high and not well supported by the modelling. For now it is a system of interest to watch and I am not quite drawing in the higher falls that some models are offering.

MEDIUM TERM - May 9th-16th 2022

Rainfall Anomalies

Looking at a substantial rainfall event emerging through the northeast and east of NSW into eastern QLD as moisture via the positive SAM combines with an upper trough that will be departing the east through this time. Some of the elevated rainfall chances could extend into central and eastern NSW as well. The rainfall developing from the west could begin to spread across southern parts of the nation but the signals not overly strong for above average rainfall but will placemark the movement of that event over southern and western parts of the nation.

Temperature Anomalies

Not much change to the temperature guide as we travel into mid month, with the cooler bias continuing in the west for now with frontal weather and rainy skies. The rain event over the east of QLD could pump moisture south and west into the eastern inland leading to more seasonal weather, though cooler weather possible under persistent rainfall over SE QLD and NE NSW. Warmer than normal weather over the northern tropics with the moisture content perhaps subsiding a bit but the lingering warmer waters around the tropics leading to elevated temperatures. Perhaps warmer nights and days for the ACT and surrounding districts in NSW ahead of the rainfall developing from the west.

DATA - Refer to video for more information and the model comparison and context about all the forecast products you see from me.

00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

More details on the daily breakdown over the short and medium term so refer to the video. But not much change is expected from this morning's synopsis, however there are some interesting highlights in the medium term that need watching.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks

Moisture content across the nation is forecast to increase once we lose the colder drier airmass that is over the southeast and south for much of this period, but note that the dry colder surge struggles to get into the northeast and really, is overridden in the medium term. Also moisture profile improves in about a week in WA. And will we see another large surge of moisture via the jet stream into the medium term through WA and then across the country?

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

A closer look in - the rainfall over inland QLD from the weekend into next week poses the most interest for me as we look through the region, there could be some heavy falls if we see a developing and deepening trough over parts of the state.

More coming up tomorrow including the Climate Outlook, as you can see some larger systems are ahead of us again, but do they continue into the back half of May or into June as well? That coming up from later tomorrow morning and your next update after 8am EST.

0 views0 comments