The wettest weather for QLD is up over the tropics and more on that in the tropics post. For now the rest of the state is expected to be experiencing seasonal weather with light to moderate showers along the coast south of Mackay, but with the wind bearing, very little should be making it into the inland areas.
Over areas west of the divide through QLD, dry for a while and high pressure with dry air making the forecast nice and easy for now.
We are expecting the moisture over northern areas of the nation to track eastwards through the tropics and the centre of circulation with a depression near the NT Coast to move westbound next week with little impact expected for inland regions.
When do we see more meaningful rainfall for inland areas? Not for a while, with high pressure sitting over the region. That will mean above average temperatures and sunny skies for a while, including areas that are dealing with flooding passing through the river systems into NSW.
Lets take a look
Rainfall Next 10 Days
Rainfall is forecast to be light on for coastal areas in comparison to what we have been observing in recent months. Large high pressure ridge to the south and extending through the upper levels over the state will keep things nice and dry and settled. This will also mitigate the impacts of a positive SAM phase where onshore winds will drive showers, but they will be low topped and drizzly at best. Across the north, that is where you will find the wettest weather in the nation with a deepening tropical wave and possibly some tropical depression activity to watch which could bring up late season rainfall chances for those areas. But the upper level winds will not allow for that deep moisture to come southwards meaning we stay dry for a while and severe weather free away from the tropics which is good news.
Thunderstorm Forecast Wednesday
Thunderstorms are once again forecast to be contained to the tropical north where waves of low pressure are being observed in a large scale tropical wave. No severe weather is expected but some of the storms could be heavy and gusty but moving swiftly so flooding is not a high risk at this time.
MEDIUM TERM - April 19th-26th 2022
Moisture Watch Next Week
Not much change expected in the forecast for a few days to come. I would be watching the northern tropics if you are living in the region, for more above average rainfall and further depression development over the NT and QLD. Moisture over the Indian Ocean is the main focus for areas in Western Australia which could bring a band of soaking rainfall through early through this period. The moisture will stream eastwards but it will be up against a battle with a large ridge and dry airmass over the eastern and southeast inland leading to the moisture producing nothing more cloud for SA at this time. Rain may come into the southeast and east following this period.
Seasonal conditions are forecast in terms of rainfall projections for this period. it is not uncommon for large areas of the east and southeast to be dry with a period of transition. The west may see some above average rainfall early in the period but the system should be scaling down as the ridge holds firm. Heaviest rainfall should still be about the northern tropics and that may lead to near record late season rainfall being observed in some areas of the NT and QLD.
With the lack of cloud cover, dry air and ridging over the interior of the nation, this will allow the landmass to warm and see a prolonged period of above average temperatures in sunny skies for the central and southeast/eastern inland. The north under wet weather and higher humidity should see seasonal temperatures but it will be more humid than normal. The southwest looking unsettled with cloud cover and cooler than normal conditions forecast through this period. Not cold, below average.
DATA - Refer to video for more information and the model comparison and context about all the forecast products you see from me.
00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks
It appears a nice dry spell developing through the central and eastern portions of the nation with high pressure in full control. The pattern lends itself to keeping the northern areas very much wet and unseasonably humid with a tropical wave nearby. The weather over the southwest, changeable with troughs sneaking through and hitting the ridge over the east leading to bouts of rainfall. The severe weather risks however for the nation will be found over the northern tropics where there may be some depression formation, possibly a late season cyclone for the NT or QLD.
00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks
Dry air looks to take up residence over much of the nation's interior leading to a prolonged period of sunny warm weather. The moisture will continue to be found over the north and far southwest for the bulk of the period. This is where more substantial rainfall will be observed. For the east coast, low level moisture may deepen a little and lead to more showery weather developing through the outlook period, but no wash out is expected. The moisture shallow, and not moving into the inland areas of QLD and NSW at this time.
00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days
Refer to the video for more context and analysis
00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days
CMC is not as amplified relating to rainfall across the nation as other models but more details to come in the wrap at 8pm EST.
00Z Euro - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days
The latest Euro is looking a little more promising for rainfall to return from ANZAC Day or just before, across southern and eastern areas of the nation, but this is not well supported by other models.
00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks
Refer to the video for more context and analysis
A closer look in - the classic autumnal dry period continues for the eastern inland and the Agricultural areas of QLD but some excessive rainfall looks possible for northern areas of the state and that is supportive of the waning La Nina phase in the Pacific.
More coming up from 8pm EST with a look at the models and rainfall, I will only share information that is in reasonable agreement as too much is too confusing and I only want to share what is plausible at this time, so stay tuned for that.