QLD - DRY DRY DRY - THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE FAR SOUTH THIS WEEKEND.

Not much in that and otherwise it is looking dry and benign for a lot of the state as we track through the coming week, high pressure reigns as king and a cold dry surge pushing through over the early part of next week, will keep the dry spell going.


When can we buy some rainfall? Find out below.

Rainfall for the next 10 days

Dry for the coming 7 days statewide, is a fair forecast, light falls for southern border areas with this system coming through. There is one model out the 10+ global agencies that supports rainfall coming back over the border from NSW with this large scale cold outbreak during early Tuesday, but at this stage, I am leaving the forecast dry, but will continue to watch. Some models bring back rainfall for the state from next weekend as the winds veer into the east.


Thunderstorm Forecast Saturday.

High based and mainly dry thunderstorms are possible about the southern inland tomorrow as a trough and cooler westerly change moves through the region.

DATA

THE MODEL MADNESS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK -

GFS 00Z Tuesday

A low develops on the front and moves slowly east, cutting off from the westerly flow, which introduces more rainfall chances into southern QLD than the Euro.

Euro 00Z Tuesday Afternoon

The Euro moves the system through as an open wave with no low pressure near NSW, but forming it closer to NZ. Dry weather for most of QLD under such guidance.

Euro 00z Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall - Next 10 days

Pattern is largely unchanged but shows a colder airmass that poses some concern for the southeast states next week in terms of frost and graziers issues with well below average temperatures. The weather over in the west by contrast, lovely, settled and warm, and the hot dry weather over the tropics will continue right through the outlook. The weather over the eastern inland north of NSW will likely remain dry for much of the outlook. There may be a front that interrupts moisture building back up over northern and eastern areas of the nation in the last week of September, but not all models agree on this idea, and introduce a low pressure system from WA with inland troughs forming. With the SAM trending more positive, I would think easterly winds likely return, but not one rule in weather is ever fixed. But it is looking quieter next week past the cold blast.

Euro 00z Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 10 days

PW Anomalies really paint the picture of the significant dry airmass developing throughout the nation, suppressing rainfall chances, drying out the tropics and combining with high pressure to promote clear skies and increasing the risk of frost through the eastern states. How severe the frost gets remains to be seen, but will keep watch and have frost forecasts for the east next week by Sunday. Otherwise, the moisture does return over WA later next week into the weekend and this may start to introduce rainfall back for the last week of the month. Otherwise it is benign for now and quieter next week.

Euro 00z Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

No low and I am siding with this solution for the region at this time but as always you have got to watch closely.

GFS 00z Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 days - If a low forms early in the period over NSW, then rainfall chances increase for southeast parts of the state.

More details to come on Saturday morning with the National Weather Wrap and if there are any developments surrounding the low pressure system forming over NSW I will have an update immediately on that. That appears to be the focus of weather nationwide this week


4 views0 comments