QLD - DRY DRY DRY - THE TROPICS SEE A FEW SHOWERS, BUT OVERALL, QUIET WEATHER THIS WEEK WITH FROSTS.

ANALYSIS

It is quiet this week for much of QLD with a ridge, dry air and that colder air in place leading to Winter weather that is very typical for the state.


The only rainfall and inclement weather is forecast up over the FNQ, with a few showers, but even here, the weather is expected to be bright at times with only partly cloudy conditions in the onshore flow.


SHORT TERM

Apart from a few showers at times over the FNQ coast, the remainder of the state, dry and mostly sunny with seasonal temperatures developing throughout the week. The weather then tending warmer than normal over the weekend and into next week as the flow tends northwesterly.


Frosty starts for the inland will continue, but severe frosts that were expected to be more widespread looks unlikely now.


LONG TERM

Showers will develop over much of the southeast of the nation with frontal weather beginning to increase, but being on the northern flank of that, we will see warmer northwesterly winds developing, helping to keep the drier weather in place.


There will be no rainfall at this time over the course of the next 10-15 days for inland areas and for many coastal areas which is normal for this time of year.


AREAS TO WATCH

The Southern Annular Mode is expected to remain negative for the next week to two weeks, which may support further frontal weather across Southern Australia.


The other area to watch, you guessed it, moisture pouring in from the Indian Ocean and floating offshore the NT and QLD. Can this be drawn southeast to kick off the cloud bands again.


WEATHER VIDEO PM - MONDAY 13TH JUNE 2022

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

A big bag of nothing for most of you over the coming 10 days, which makes the forecast easy to remember, and really, I would check back once a day if you are living in the region because not much weather is forecast at this time. Some showers are possible about the far northeast tropics but otherwise it is looking very rain free.

Not a whole lot of rainfall expected away from the light falls along the east coast with weak onshore winds.

Frost Risk Tuesday Morning

Cold night, clear skies and the drier air with the length of night at near maximum, all combining to produce frosty conditions over large sections of inland QLD. Low chance of severe frosts closer to the NSW border.

MEDIUM TERM

June 20th-27th 2022

Rainfall Anomalies

White means seasonal expectations at this stage across the nation with poor signals at the moment for a drier or wetter bias compared to what is seasonally expected at this time.

Temperature Anomalies

Temperatures are forecast to remain above average over the northern and central parts of the nation with a northwest flow with drier air still expected to feature over the northern parts of the nation, which is efficiently heated at this time of year. Generally seasonal weather expected most elsewhere with poor signals for either warmer or colder weather across the east and west.

DATA - Refer to the video for further context for the short and medium term.


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to the video for more information on the daily break down to cut down the reading, if there is anything of significance that needs highlighting it will be placed here and replace this text.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks

The area of interest is now much moisture spreads across the nation through the week from west to east and how much of that gets involved in the frontal weather that is looking to ramp up in response to the SAM being negative for a protracted period. Note that the moisture profile in the medium term over northern and northeastern Australia remains elevated and this could see a cloud band form over much of eastern QLD leading to below average temperatures and rainfall returning.


00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

A closer look in - rainfall could return to QLD in the medium term, watch the back wash with the low in the Coral Sea in the short term that may produce a few showers and thunder later in the weekend into next week but then that moisture offshore the north could be drawn southwards into the eastern inland. Watching the trough mid next week that could fire off some thunder for inland areas but this carries a low confidence.

More coming up from 8pm EST with a look at the models and rainfall

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