QLD - DRY AND WARM THIS WEEKEND AHEAD OF A COLDER SHIFT EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR THE SOUTH.

The seasonal tussle continues, as we see the persistent ridge remain over our part of the world, diverting systems away from the region, keeping things dry for yet another week.


However, we are seeing some shifting once again in modelling, and in line with the climate averages, the weather should turn wetter for October onwards for the state.


Lets take a look.

Rainfall for the next 10 days

The rainfall is lean for the state which is expected at this time of year as we round out the dry season for most districts inland of the coast. There are some signals that rainfall may return next weekend onwards and into the last week of the month with humidity increasing and troughs redeveloping over northern Australia.

00Z Euro - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall - Next 10 days

The weather is largely unchanged from this morning, the high pressure is moving eastwards this evening finally making way for the trough and front to approach the southeast later tomorrow. That will be the focus of the wet weather for the weekend. Another front is expected next week over the southeast bringing bitterly cold late wintry weather for the south and east. Meanwhile a high to the west of Adelaide will keep the remainder of the nation dry and settled for most of next week. A slow clearing trend is expected for the southeast and it will take a while to recover from the cold temperatures of Monday. Moisture looks to return for the nation later next week into the weekend, as the SAM trends positive and the high pressure begins to sit further south and the prevailing winds shift into the east. Dry weather for the tropics too, perhaps the last burst of dry season weather for the season.

00z Euro - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 10 days

The PW Anomalies continue to support a drier surge of air rolling through the southern and eastern inland of the nation bringing well below average temperatures and suppressing rainfall chances away from coastal areas. As we saw with the GFS and you can see below, the difference in the rainfall distribution and potential is connected to the moisture over the inland, does it get absorbed into the follow up system and lifted into rain areas over northern NSW and southern QLD or does it stay back over the west of the nation with no precipitation from this high PW value? Later in the period, moisture does return as the high shfits east and places the nation back into a prevailing easterly wind regime. Moisture may also be drawn into the mid latitude westerly winds and bring middle and upper level moisture back through southern Australia, possibly feeding troughs that could form in the eastern wind pattern over the nation.

00z Euro - Rainfall - Next 10 days

More notes on rainfall differences between the GFS and Euro for the eastern states can be found in the weather video.

00z GFS - Rainfall - Next 16 days

00Z Euro - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall - Next 10 days

The weather is largely unchanged from this morning, the high pressure is moving eastwards this evening finally making way for the trough and front to approach the southeast later tomorrow. That will be the focus of the wet weather for the weekend. Another front is expected next week over the southeast bringing bitterly cold late wintry weather for the south and east. Meanwhile a high to the west of Adelaide will keep the remainder of the nation dry and settled for most of next week. A slow clearing trend is expected for the southeast and it will take a while to recover from the cold temperatures of Monday. Moisture looks to return for the nation later next week into the weekend, as the SAM trends positive and the high pressure begins to sit further south and the prevailing winds shift into the east. Dry weather for the tropics too, perhaps the last burst of dry season weather for the season.

00z Euro - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 10 days

The PW Anomalies continue to support a drier surge of air rolling through the southern and eastern inland of the nation bringing well below average temperatures and suppressing rainfall chances away from coastal areas. As we saw with the GFS and you can see below, the difference in the rainfall distribution and potential is connected to the moisture over the inland, does it get absorbed into the follow up system and lifted into rain areas over northern NSW and southern QLD or does it stay back over the west of the nation with no precipitation from this high PW value? Later in the period, moisture does return as the high shfits east and places the nation back into a prevailing easterly wind regime. Moisture may also be drawn into the mid latitude westerly winds and bring middle and upper level moisture back through southern Australia, possibly feeding troughs that could form in the eastern wind pattern over the nation.

00z Euro - Rainfall - Next 10 days

More notes on rainfall differences between the GFS and Euro for the eastern states can be found in the weather video.

00z GFS - Rainfall - Next 16 days

Latest Model Wrap on all the rainfall data coming up after 9pm tonight.


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