QLD - DRY AND BENIGN FOR A WHILE BUT SHOWERS WILL RETURN TO THE FAR NORTH COAST NEXT WEEK.

The weather is expected to remain fairly settled under areas of high pressure and dry air this week, while frontal weather once again moves through southeast areas of the nation, driving the wet weather down through those areas.


But we are still sitting too far north, underneath persistent high pressure and this is suppressing rainfall chances for a lot of the state.


The trade winds have relaxed in recent days, but are set to return next week as the high over the south moves into the southeast states later next week.


Moisture is creeping up through the nation later next week which may result in rainfall chances coming up over the state towards the end of the month as we finally end the driest time of year for QLD.

Rainfall for the next 10 days.

Not much, with systems rotating south of the state, sending dry and cold air further north with low rainfall chances as we sit under persistent high pressure. The weather will turn more humid over the northern districts with showers returning once we see easterly winds develop, this feeding showers back onto the east coast. Otherwise we wait....

DATA

Euro 00z Surface Pressure Pattern - Next 10 days

The surface pressure pattern again is in good agreement with the Euro with a large high moving east making room for a front over the southeast to slide through, dragging moisture out of the northwest, and leading to a rain band to form over the southeastern inland. Otherwise the north is turning dry with a dry southeasterly surge coming through the NT and northern WA. This weather likely remain unchanged through most of next week. The only follow up rainfall of any note comes through during Monday with another cold front with light falls and colder air. The main feature over the coming period is the variation in temperatures lurching from one extreme to the other. The tropics will become more humid later in the period and over the western inland, there could be increasing temperatures and humidity just outside of this period to lift rainfall chances as mentioned after about the 24th for the nation.

Euro 00z Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 10 days

Great modelling on the moisture coming in from the Indian Ocean, perhaps the driver is finally starting to wake up and influence conditions. The air sadly ahead of the system is dry in the lower levels and this is leading to the above average temperature through SA and not much rainfall, the moisture still expected to be lifted up by the front racing over the southeast on Saturday with better rainfall prospects breaking out over the southeast inland. Otherwise the nation is in dry air for most of next week as another large scale upper high takes full control. Moisture tries to return on the periphery of that upper high through northern and western parts of the nation.

GFS 00z Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 16 days

You can see the moisture is a little deeper with the system coming through the southeast during the weekend and then the drier air a lot more widespread through the country come next week. Note the moisture building after the 10 day window. It is all coming down to timing....can troughs and or frontal weather interact with it, the moisture is there...

Euro 00z Rainfall - Next 10 days

Rainfall lean nationwide away from the southeast, that clearly is the heavier rainfall as you could see from the surface pressure pattern. Once we get the systems off the board next week, the nation is generally dry for a while. Maybe rainfall coming back later in the period over the northern and western parts of the nation. More on that coming up after 9pm.

Again I will have an update on the models with regards to rainfall coming up after 9pm tonight so be sure to check that out.


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