QLD - DRY AND BECOMING MILDER THROUGH MUCH OF THE STATE TODAY.

After a hot few days, the weather is expected to turn seasonal for many over central and southern inland areas. The weather sunny though with no real complications.


The high pressure ridge will move slowly east from WA bringing the stable airmass over the central and eastern inland parts of the nation. The weather should remain stable until next week for inland areas.


Finally the focus shifts back to the coast with the easterly winds set to redevelop thanks to high pressure moving southeast and east of the state. This will see showers developing for the east coast.


The coverage of showers could be moderate over some parts of the coast, especially in areas exposed to an easterly wind regime. The weather will turn humid over tropical areas through the weekend and next week with heat levels rising, not quite to excessive levels, but there will be a noticeable increase in comfort levels.


There are models suggesting rainfall to return through inland areas but the forecast confidence is quite low next week. More on that in the medium term forecast package coming up later this morning.


12Z GFS Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 16 days

Pattern is settling down for the coming week, we still have the colder weather over the southeast with an onshore flow through the southeast states. The weather will become drier over inland areas of NSW today with the showers contracting through VIC and coastal SA. The weather then becomes drier throughout the east for the good part of the next week with high pressure deflecting the frontal weather off to the southeast. Those fronts will bring the wet weather through WA from Saturday with some strong cold fronts coming through early next week with moderate falls. Clearly the wettest part of the nation will be the southwest of WA. The high will persist over the southeast Tasman Sea and finally send easterly winds back to the eastern seaboard, so showers developing for the QLD and NSW coasts with some moderate falls over QLD. The moisture will try to build up over inland areas. The moisture will build up over the northern tropics with humid weather increasing during the coming week.

12z GFS Rainfall for the coming 10 days

Drying out as expected for the southeast and eastern inland with the pattern settling. High pressure is moving in and that has also sent a cooler southerly flow into the eastern inland. The weather will start to shift over the weekend as that high moves south of the region, sending a southeast to easterly flow, that brings back showers to the east coast. Some areas may see moderate falls, especially north of about Mackay. The weather remains generally fine for inland areas next week, but it is a low confidence forecast.

12z GFS Precipitable Water Anomalies next 16 days

The PW values are drying out for the nation, with the elevated values of recent days being pushed north. The dry air should win out over the coming days with the next surge of deeper moisture reserved for WA where the bulk of the rainfall will be. Moisture will likely be building up via the easterly winds will produce coastal showers this weekend over the east coast. Otherwise it is all eyes on the medium term where moisture starts to increase dramatically mid month onwards. More on that later.

12z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 10 days

The weather also settling down on the latest Euro. Residual showers over the southeast over the coming few days will be the last of the wet weather for the south until we get the next batch of cold fronts coming into WA. The east coast will see showers developing over the weekend into next week with light to moderate falls. Then curiously the Euro still wants to introduce a northwest cloud band over WA bringing up rainfall chances for inland areas from mid month, where the GFS does not see it. More on that later.

12z Euro Rainfall for the coming 10 days

Rainfall limited to coastal areas as the inland begins to dry out. So finally we have got some rainfall returning to the east coast from this weekend. I will have more details on this later today as the modelling again is not very clear on the coverage, GFS wants to introduce a trough over the east which may bring showers inland, the Euro says no to that. Plus moisture over the tropics may increase further over the course of the next 10 days, that could be drawn south through the state mid month, so I do think this chart will become more colorful as go this week into the weekend.

12z Euro Precipitable Water Values next 10 days

PW values continue to modify and trend dry over much of the southern parts of the nation which is to be expected as high pressure dominates. The weather is expected to continue in this manner until early next week. Areas to watch will be the northwest and west of the nation and along the east coast, to see how the moisture builds over the coming week.

Rainfall for the next 10 days

The wettest part of the nation could be parts of the QLD coast where rainfall could exceed 50mm during the coming week, with moderate showers further north towards Bamaga and down to Mackay. Not much of that rainfall coming inland with the easterly winds, but the moisture may be drawn inland if the wind flow freshens and becomes persistent. Model divergence makes it tricky to forecast. I am keeping inland areas dry for now, but do not be shocked if rainfall starts to be drawn in over the NT moving eastwards.

More on the medium term forecast coming up later this morning.

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