The days have been not too bad across the state in recent times, a nice ridge of high pressure dropping the humidity and rainfall chances, at least a chance to dry out and for the disaster zones to have a few sunny warm days. Much needed indeed.

Over the northern areas of QLD, the routine showers and areas of rain continues near a trough that is laying over the Gulf and through Cape York being fed by trade winds. The rain and thunderstorm activity is set to continue for northern areas and rainfall could become heavier with the emergence of a tropical low over the weekend and into this time next week.

Communities between Thursday Island through to Normanton east to Cairns need to pay attention to forecasts over the coming days with relation to this system.

For the southern inland, we could see an upper trough form in SA and this trough could move into the southwest and south later this week into the weekend. Thunderstorms may become more scattered to numerous along this area of instability, espeically as moisture is being pumped in via easterly winds on top of a high in the Tasman Sea (SAM Positive Weather).

That positive SAM is expected to see showers increasing for the Southeast and Wide Bay Coasts with some moderate to heavy falls about the Sunshine and Gold Coasts with the risk of thunderstorms. Some of those storms could be severe on Thursday with another upper trough near the region.

Over the weekend, we could see more widespread rainfall across southern and southeast areas of the state with heavy falls continuing, but there is low confidence on this solution.

Otherwise the dry and warm weather for many areas is coming to an end. The far west of the state may remain in stable air for now, but even there, keep watching the forecasts closely.

Lets take a look


Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is forecast to be lean for the coming 2 days for areas away from the FNQ coast, where a trough feeding off the trade winds will keep the routine showers and thunder going for the tropics. Elsewhere, keeping things mostly dry with partly cloudy conditions. As we move into the middle to latter part of the week, watching the trough developing through coastal NSW that will be lifting north, being helped by a high pressure system that will set up camp in the Tasman Sea. That onshore wind flow will lead to showers increasing for coastal areas and thunder also develop amongst the showers. Another trough over inland areas of the nation carries a low confidence at the moment, but there is some chance we could see scattered showers and thunderstorms developing for southwest and southern areas of QLD. Some of the storms could pack a punch but at this time, we are not seeing great agreement so I am not drawing the full rainfall potential on the charts. But keep watching.

Thunderstorm Forecast Tuesday

Thunderstorms are forecast to remain over coastal areas of FNQ and over Cape York during the afternoon and evening with now real threat of severe weather at this time. A very low chance of thunderstorms over the far north Gulf Country during the afternoon and evening.

DATA - Refer to the video for further information and it is critical to keep check of the data sets to understand where the next major weather events are emerging from outside of this period. It may be quiet now but I am all about preparation and ensuring that information is shared with you as soon as it is available.

00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

The GFS true to form indicates the weather turning volatile over vast areas of the nation but then is the one to pull back while other models now support the weather to volatile over western, northern and eastern areas. It is a common dance that I have seen in my 25 years of doing this. So at the moment, using the GFS, it carries a lower confidence that the other models which are more realistic of the impacts of the troughs over the east in line with the positive SAM phase (which is stronger than the previous event) so rainfall could be heavy at times over the east of the nation, more than what is being shown here. The weather in the west, is dictated by where Charlotte ends up travelling too, at this time, it does appear it is heading towards the Central West or Gascoyne. Now timing is the issue, we could have thunderstorms increasing in coverage from later this week into the weekend, but the GFS below suggests it could be slower on the approach and weaken the system offshore before moving it ashore with a trough and front. An upper level system still appears on other modelling for the eastern inland, but not on the GFS so that system while absent from the charts in the short term still carries a risk of evolving from the weekend with severe weather potential for the eastern inland. All of this weather bypassing SA and VIC where conditions should remain dry. Finally, the GFS still playing with an idea of a tropical low forming northeast of the Top End (other models have had this solution, the model dance continues) and this could produce heavier rainfall for the Top End and Cape York.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks

Moisture remains unchanged from this morning. Moisture is forecast to sweep through the nation via the jet stream with a port of moisture running through the upper and low levels of the atmosphere leading to a band of rainfall spreading through the country, patchier this week over parts of SA but may increase through the eastern inland with another trough there. There may be another invigoration of the rain band over in the west with the moisture deepening as the tropical low approaches the west coast. Across the north, more of the same with deeper moisture and widespread showers and thunderstorms continuing as the MJO moves through. Drier air at the surface will likely be trapped under the ridge with little rainfall potential in this region for now.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

A closer look in - very low confidence in terms of rainfall beyond 5 days! Be aware of that.

More coming up from 8am EDT. There is little use of doing the models and rainfall wrap tonight looking at the spread. So will review that again tomorrow and update that element if required. 6 Week Outlook also due out tomorrow too.

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