QLD - DRIER WEATHER DEVELOPING THIS WEEK AND BECOMING COLDER INLAND.

A nice pop of dry air is expected to engulf the state this week leading to more dry weather coming into the forecasts following a weak cloud band bringing patchy rainfall tonight and through Monday. But once that rainfall is gone, we could see many areas going dry for about a week!! Which would be welcome for many hoping for the catchments to dry out a little!


Coastal areas also looking mostly dry for the week as well with a westerly wind regime, dry air and slow moving pressure pattern meaning that what you see on the forecast Tuesday is what your will see over the weekend, so real Winter weather is on the go this week.


Colder than normal temperatures will continue and if the cloud cover can decrease throughout the period, we may see some frosty mornings develop, not expecting severe frost, but it could be the first frost of the season for many over southern inland areas and higher terrain.


The next rain maker is still a ways off as the atmosphere and synoptic resets, with moisture building over the northwest of WA with the jet stream running further north over the northern tropics leading to cloud bands forming there, but it will drift south as the Southern Annular mode tends negative mid month. This will see more cold fronts develop over southern Australia once again


Let’s take a look


FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is looking lean for the state, but the higher rainfall totals could be found over the northern tropics once again which is not that unusual for this time of year, but it does follow a theme so far this year, of higher humidity and rainfall coverage over northern and eastern Australia in response to the lingering La Niña in the ENSO. However I am seeing evidence that the influence of the La Niña is waning and thus rainfall numbers are starting to retreat to normal. Rainfall wise, once we lose the patchy falls tonight and tomorrow over the interior and through to the central and southern coastal areas, dry weather is expected for many areas for the coming week. So enjoy the drier weather while it lasts.

Once we lose the rainfall over the inland, it should be dry for the following 7-10 days with ridging and dry air. Showers may develop along the coast with onshore winds once the approaching moves into the Tasman Sea.

MEDIUM TERM

June 12th-19th 2022

Rainfall Anomalies

Rainfall likely to be above average over the northwest and western inland with deeper moisture developing across the region, drawn in by the jet stream. Frontal weather running through southern Australia likely to keep rainfall near seasonal, but a drier bias over the southeast areas in lee of the divide from the westerly flow may turn drier than normal for this period.

Temperature Anomalies

Warmer weather redevelops over the western interior as a more humid and unstable airmass forms and winds veer into the north and northwest. Still colder than normal over in the east and southeast, but this signal should start to moderate throughout the back half of the month as the winds veer back into the west and northwest over the region ahead of the next weather maker moving out of the west of the country

DATA - Refer to the video for further information on the short- and medium-term issues.


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

I break down the critical information in the video at the top of the page but clearly the main weather influence is with the large scale high over the Bight, whipping up the cold showery weather over the southeast and leading to drier weather throughout the country. The weather over in the west of the nation is forecast to warm up ahead of a deepening trough leading to widespread falls coming into the western and southwestern areas of WA. Some areas could see some heavy rainfall by the end of the week. The tropics will see a drier southeast airstream move in by the end of the week and into the weekend. This will help push moisture back into the Indian Ocean to be recycled through the jet stream lifting rainfall chances into the second half of the month.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks

Drier air in the east and more moisture developing over the west and northwest will headline the forecast moisture spread this week. The moisture is forecast to move further east throughout the latter part of the week into the weekend and then into the medium term, further moisture will move through the nation via the jet stream lifting rainfall chances.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

A closer look in - patchy falls in the short term may give way to some dry conditions for a while for much of the state, that rainfall you see for the medium term will likely be gone in the next run or two.



More coming up from 8pm EST with a look at the models and rainfall - where is the next rain maker coming from?


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