QLD - DRIER WEATHER DEVELOPING FOR MANY AWAY FROM THE TROPICS.

ANALYSIS

Colder and drier air is moving into the bulk of the inland as a dry southerly surge also works north into the sub tropics and deep tropics this week into the weekend. That has helped form the cloud band today, leading to areas of patchy rain and some thunder.


The rest of the state, it is cold with high wind chill, clear sunny skies but certainly a major atmosphere change has unfolded through the past week and that is expected to remain in place for at least the next 5 days.


So settled conditions for most of the sunshine state, this is dry season for many, so the rainfall yesterday was quite unusual in terms of the heavy nature of it leading to some places around the Wide Bay and Central Highlands seeing above average rainfall in a sitting. That includes areas around Hervey Bay and points back west and north to about Bundaberg.


SHORT TERM

It is an easy forecast to remember. The dry weather with local morning frost for elevated parts of the inland is possible for mornings this week and into the weekend but lovely sunny days to follow through to the weekend and early next week.


Areas of rain and thick cloud over the far north tonight will move offshore into the Coral Sea tomorrow with that drier southerly surge moving north and northwest throughout the subtropics, reaching the Gulf Country by Thursday and into the remainder of QLD and the Top End this weekend with cooler nights and comfortable days coming up.


LONG TERM

Watching that rainfall potential over in WA as that moisture could spread through the jet stream and with some chance, a frontal passage or two over Southern Australia will eventually spread that cloud and rainfall potential into the eastern inland by later next week.


Between now and then most of the state is expected to be dry. The high-pressure system over the southeast that was forecast to shift the winds into the east bringing rainfall back to the east coast, looks weaker, so only isolated showers and cloudy skies possible mid to late next week for areas from the Gold Coast north to Cape York.


Otherwise, it is dry season, and this is what the weather should be like.


AREAS TO WATCH

That moisture plume over the NW of the country is a feature to watch as that may approach later next week with the frontal weather ramping up.


Also watching the deeper moisture flirting with northern Australia as that may be pulled southwards towards the end of the month, leading to higher rainfall chances through the state.


WEATHER VIDEO PM - TUESDAY 7TH JUNE 2022

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Not much to see here, the bulk of the rainfall is forecast to be found over the northern tropical areas of the country with a dry surge running into the warm moist air, setting up that cloud development today, but it should clear by tomorrow afternoon. Otherwise, hard to find a shower over the next 5-7 days across the state with many areas going dry through the next 10 days. This is good news for many Ag Areas needing a break and hopefully some of that inland flooding cutting off communities can settle down and move on into the interior before the wet weather returns through the back half of Winter into Spring.

Rainfall over the north tonight and tomorrow should ease but further scattered showers are possible through the rest of the week and into the weekend before we see drier air win out. Dry through much of the interior which is expected at this time of year.

Frost Risk Forecast Wednesday

Cold air and dry air with clear skies and light winds, will lead to some areas of morning frost over the central inland. The coverage of frost may continue over the same areas during the remainder of the week into the weekend.

Frost Watch - This Weekend

The risk area remains large, but it will be refined as we get a better idea on how the high-pressure ridge behaves as it approaches from the weekend, which looks to not sit over the region as long as what was being forecast yesterday.

DATA - Refer to the video for further information and the daily breakdown to cut down on the reading below.


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to video for more information on the short- and medium-term outlook as that will give you the best idea and context behind the model data.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks

The moisture values are still running well below average for the east but that is conjunction with very cold air. The colder drier air is surging through northwards to the deep tropics over the course of the week. The opposite can be said for areas over the west and northwest of the nation where further moisture is expected to increase and spill across the nation via the jet stream next week and into the following weekend, which may be the start of the next rainfall for southern and eastern Australia. The moisture values running through the westerly wind belt in the medium term are too high to have such low rainfall projections for southern Australia so expect this to change.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

A closer look in - that looks much more seasonal for June, but watch that moisture over the northern waters which could fuel further cloud bands into the medium term.

More coming up from 8pm EST with a look at the models and rainfall, I will only share information that is in reasonable agreement as too much is too confusing and I only want to share what is plausible at this time, so stay tuned for that.


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