QLD - DRIER WEATHER DEVELOPING ACROSS THE STATE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

But the cold weather is forecast to unfold over the southeast from Sunday with that cooler drier air expected to spread through the eastern inland and reach us during Monday afternoon into Tuesday.


Now while we will be spared the worst of the cold blast as the flow is more westerly than southerly for now, the overnight temperatures are forecast to drop away and days tending sunnier through the weekend, a little cloudy with the airmass change passing through during Monday then back to mostly sunny and mild with westerly winds Tuesday through the end of next week.


That places QLD in a dry spell which is welcome for many.


Out west, we are watching the development of a cloud band today which is forecast to stay contained over the western parts of the continent, but that moisture may eventually creep across via the jet stream and spread cloudy skies through with the chance of some rainfall at the end of the period for the western and southwest inland.


Along the coast, apart from a few showers today for some areas, the weather is generally improving, and we may see, as mentioned, a nice drier period across the state as we track a more typical synoptic pattern for late May and early June.


Finally, there may be some grazier issues and frost developing about the southern areas bordering NSW through next week as well so just keep an eye on that.


Let's take a look

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

A drier spell is developing for the state which is welcome to type here after what has been a shocking spell of wet weather with flooding and severe weather problems. We are now looking at a drier spell unfolding thanks to the westerly wind regime over southern Australia, and this being accompanied by a cold blast from the Southern Ocean which looks to move north of the eastern inland. A few showers about the coast today will clear off today and drier weather tomorrow with high pressure coming in. That high will set up camp this weekend over the state with mostly fine weather continuing. A band of cloud coming through with a cold front over NSW may bring a few showers to southern areas, bordering NSW during Monday before that race east and clears. The cooler and drier airmass in the westerly flow behind the front will lead to low rainfall chances for most of next week for much of the state. The only system to watch is the developing cloud band in WA, and whether we see rainfall spread from the Central Interior into western QLD later next week or over the weekend, but confidence is low for now.

The drier period is set to unfold over the coming week and generally most areas should see their driest week of the year with a westerly wind belt unfolding.

MEDIUM TERM

June 2nd-9th 2022

Rainfall Anomalies

Not much change in the guide with generally seasonal rainfall for most areas of the nation. The main area of above average rainfall potential runs along the jet stream through the western and central interior but here, you only need 5-10mm to see well above average rainfall at this time of year. Showery weather over the southern Ag Areas could tip the balance of rainfall spread into the above average range for some parts of southern and southeast Australia but the risk is marginal.

Temperature Anomalies

Temperatures are forecast to remain below average for a fair chunk of the nation but more likely to be well below average over the Northwest of WA where persistent cloud and rainfall ongoing with troughing offshore looks to keep things cooler than normal. A fast flow pattern should be ongoing over southern Australia leading to bursts of showery weather over southern Australia and westerly winds. Some moderation of the temperatures over northern areas is expected with the southeasterly surges moving through regularly.

DATA - Refer to the video for further information and it is critical to keep check of the data sets to understand where the next major weather events are emerging from outside of this period.


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

Not much change from this morning. More information can be found on the video at the top of the page where the information is broad. Key areas to watch, the heavy rainfall over the northwest of the nation and how much of that can feed south and southeast, the cold outbreak over the southeast this weekend and into next week and whether we see some follow up falls for southern parts of the nation. Do we have a longer drier spell for the eastern seaboard well into June as well?



00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks

The moisture content is coming down from where it was from previous months as temperatures come down in value too. So the overall moisture content will reflect a move to more winter like conditions across the country. As we track into the medium term, we are forecast to see more widespread moisture running through northern and northwest areas of the country leading to elevated levels of humidity at the surface, this again leading to above average rainfall chances for the arid areas and tropical areas of the country which is quite abnormal for this time of year. The moisture could perhaps begin to spread south and southeast through the country which would lead to more rainfall chances for southern and eastern areas of the nation.



00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

A closer look in -the driest period for the state is on the way with a westerly wind regime leading to continental air and high pressure dominating the region, very welcome news indeed.

More coming up from 8pm EST with a look at the models and rainfall.


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