QLD - COOLER AIR SWEEPING NORTH TONIGHT AND ON WEDNESDAY. DRIER WEATHER FOR MOST.

The weather is forecast to transition from the above average temperatures that we have been experiencing for the past week to cooler than normal temperatures for many areas, thanks to this drier southwesterly flow working through from NSW, bringing that airmass change throughout.


Farmers and Graziers, be advised that this event poses a low risk to operations at this time, given the coldest air stays further south this time around, but it is a sign of the times that is for sure.


As we work into the end of the week, conditions should be dry and mostly seasonal with temperatures trough Central and Eastern areas. Over the southern interior, a northern aspect of the cloud band working through NSW and VIC will bring some light rainfall to the Downs and Granite Belt with some areas possibly seeing 5mm or so, but well below average temperatures.


The rainfall with that feature is on by during the weekend, and most of the state should be dry and stable with temperatures remaining near seasonal for most.


Next week, conditions are looking rather benign with no major weather event forecast at this time, with the models suggesting the bulk of the wet and windy weather over the southeast. The forecast confidence is relatively low at this moment for next week as we see weather systems become organised across the data sets, which are divergent at the moment.


Let's take a look

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is forecast to remain lean for the period which is good news for the state. There are some attempts for rainfall to spread through the jet stream later this week and again next week from Central Australia. Rainfall totals generally light with cooler than normal weather forecast to be the bigger impact. The coastal areas should see little to no rainfall through this time. Next week, the ridging is forecast to win out with the drier air via westerly winds to feature, so looking relatively quiet for the period. But I do think we will have some impact on rainfall numbers via the moisture building up over northern and northwest parts of the country which may sweep into the jet stream leading to higher rainfall chances across the north and east into the medium term.

Welcome drier weather for much of the next 10 days, though there could be some patchy falls, accumulation will be at the lowest values in 6 months.

MEDIUM TERM

June 7th-14th 2022

Rainfall Anomalies

Rainfall chances leaning above average over northern Australia seems to be a reasonable forecast given the moisture content running through northern and northwest Australia and this landing through the jet stream, bringing the chance of showers and storms through the dry season. The rainfall may sink further south into the central interior of the nation. Most elsewhere, the indications are for seasonal rainfall opportunities, so not dry, but normal weather conditions for now. Parts of the east coast could see drier than normal weather if the westerly wind regime continues to hold firm.

Temperature Anomalies

The cooler than normal weather is coming up very strong on all models for interior parts, this could be due to cold air trapped under cloudy skies as the jet stream continues to unfold across the nation. Through the southwest and over the far north, conditions may be leaning towards seasonal. If there is a large-scale rainfall event, then we may see temperatures come down event further over the interior.

DATA - Refer to the video for further information and it is critical to keep check of the data sets to understand where the next major weather events are emerging from outside of this period.


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

The latest GFS shows that the cold outbreak is forecast to wind down in the coming 24hrs, though the colder weather will stick around for the next week or so over the nation as a whole with further cloud and showery weather on the way later this week and series of cold fronts for the southeast this weekend, as a slow moving high pressure system remains west and south of WA. Over in the southwest of the nation, the weather is expected to remain mostly fine and dry with near seasonal temperatures, but as you head inland, cloudy skies and patchy rainfall with moderate rainfall about will continue for central and northern inland areas and heavy rainfall with storms over the northern parts of the state is also possible. Weather conditions are forecast to wind down up there as well through the coming few days. Into the weekend, we will have showery weather over the southeast of the nation with onshore southwest winds and cold weather. A high that is slow to move east, will move to the Bight by early next week, opening the door for the next rainfall event to develop for WA. Some indication this evening that the GFS is falling into line with the Euro from this morning with the rainfall looking to move further south than east but will watch trends. The east coast enjoying the dry weather as is much of the northeastern inland.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks

Moisture values coming way down in relation to the temperatures falling away with the southwest flow. Deeper moisture with more productive rainfall over the northwest of the nation continues but leading to a disruptive dry season. The weather is very much seasonal for the south despite the below average temperatures, rainfall is what you would expect to see. Moisture values are expected to remain elevated over the northern tropics which suggests to me that rainfall chances will increase for the north and east for the NT and QLD into the medium term.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z Euro - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

A closer look in - the rainfall is looking seasonal for the most part in the region, but I would be watching the medium term very closely as there is a lot of moisture rotating through WA, and the NT. That could be picked up and send rainfall numbers back up into the medium term.

More coming up from 8pm EST with a look at the models and rainfall, what is beyond this cold outbreak over the southeast and the rain event over the northwest? Do we see rainfall emerge elsewhere?


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