No real change in the overall guidance for the tropics to again turn moist and that moisture beginning to move to the south and the west throughout Friday.

Satellite shows clear skies with only fair weather cirrus passing through the mid latitude westerly winds over the nation though the sunny for most parts. The dry surge kicking out the stormy clouds out of the north.

Before then, we do have a higher frost risk for Thursday morning, with this likely to be one of the last attempts of severe frost for the season, though I never say the risk is over until October.

Temperatures have been quite mild today through the south remembering that these areas were about 10-12C above normal about 2 days ago, so it has been quite a sharp drop in temperatures. The weather over the far north also much cooler today compared to yesterday.

The rainfall coverage will begin to increase over FNQ during Friday as the trade winds return, a little weakness in the upper levels coupled with the moisture coming in on those easterly winds, the shower activity could turn quite productive.

The moisture then spreads throughout the south and west of the state running down the length of the coast, looking to be halted at around the Wide Bay. Showers increasing for the length of the coast but dry for the southeast for now.

Thunderstorms may develop during Sunday with showers turning to areas of rain, with moderate to heavy falls over central and northern parts of the coast and the adjacent inland region. This may lead to a few cool days through the region with thick cloud cover.

I like using K-Index which does not get used widely but takes in all the atmospheric parameters and then spits out the risk based on units between 0-60+ Generally you want to see unit values of 25 and above for thunderstorms to be possible, the higher the unit values, especially in QLD when there is a trigger, the higher the coverage of storms.

Sunday shows quite widespread storms developing during Sunday afternoon

Monday shows another round of thunderstorms for central and northern inland areas of QLD.

The troughs rotating through the southeast over the weekend and early next week will help to pull the moisture offshore with a high consolidating back over the eastern inland with temperatures set to climb well above average.

00Z GFS Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 16 days

00z GFS Rainfall for the coming 16 days

00z GFS Precipitable Water Anomalies next 16 days

00z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 10 days

00z Euro Rainfall for the coming 10 days

00z Euro Precipitable Water Values next 10 days

Rainfall for the next 10 days

As mentioned above and through the commentary today, the main focus for rainfall comes with an upper trough throughout the northern and central inland of the state. A moist onshore easterly wind regime will be lifted into showers and storms across the eastern third of the state though the southeast dry. Then the weather should warm up and dry out mid next week with a major weather event likely to sweep the nation's south with a large area of rainfall.

I will have more weather from 7am with another broad wrap of the short and medium term forecast details.

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