QLD - COASTAL SHOWERS FOR SOME DRY INLAND, SETTLED AUTUMN WEATHER CONTINUES.

The weather is forecast to be fairly seasonal for the coming week across QLD away from the tropics, with a large upper high planted firmly over the state leading to a period of dry and stable weather for large parts of inland QLD.


There is a surface high over the Tasman which is helping to push a southeast flow over the coast, but the air is drier, more stable and any shower activity is expected to be light and patchy at this time.


Through the weekend, temperatures are forecast to be well and truly above average with some locations looking to touch the high 30s in the west and central areas, so baking for Easter.


A cold front passing through the southeast will help to whip up a cloud band to our south, but no impact on the weather is forecast from this feature at the time.


Lets take a look

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Nothing expected inland at this time for the coming week to 10 days. Light showers along the coast, mainly today and tomorrow but then dry for a while for many areas that are somewhat not exposed to those southeast winds. So really, a drier picture, probably the driest forecast so far this year for large parts of QLD. The tropics is where you will find the bulk of the thunderstorm activity and rainfall through this period. There is a small chance that rainfall may try to develop later next week with a surge of moisture pushing south from the tropics over eastern QLD. There is also weak signals for a developing depression offshore the QLD coast.

Thunderstorm Forecast Thursday

Thunderstorms are forecast to be located mainly over the tropics once again and the better chance will likely be located over the Cape York region and through the coastal areas of the Gulf. No severe weather expected at this time.

MEDIUM TERM - April 20th-27th 2022

Moisture Watch Next Week

You can track the moisture from after Easter from northwest to southeast across the south of the nation, that is advance of a trough of low pressure with a jet stream cloud band attached moving through the southern states. Higher moisture content over the northeast tropics will lead to more widespread above average rainfall coverage but the tropical airmass will begin to move east and the moisture should begin to return to seasonal values at the end of the period. Dry air along the east coast at this time.

Rainfall Anomalies

The rainfall is likely to be winding down over the northeast tropics with a return to more seasonal distribution of rainfall likely by the end of the period. Over the southwest, persistent cloud lingering with a jet stream aloft and a moisture plume from the Indian Ocean will lead to rain featuring on most days through the period, but not a strong signal for a severe weather event. The moisture and rainfall signals increase as you head through southern SA and into western VIC and NSW as we get towards ANZAC Day and thereafter with a wave of low pressure moving into the Bight and a series of fronts, possibly the first for the season, bringing rain periods. Seasonal weather elsewhere.

Temperature Anomalies

The above average temperatures will continue for the east and southeast extending back through southern and central Australia but the warm airmass will begin to be shoved east and north as we see a trough and front approach from the west leading to a cooler westerly spreading through Southern Australia by the end of the period. Over northern areas, it will be very warm and humid but seasonal temperatures overall. Some cooler bias is possible for the northeast tropics.

DATA - Refer to video for more information and the model comparison and context about all the forecast products you see from me.


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

The latest GFS is certainly going off in the second week of the outlook, but do not be fooled by that major system in the second half of the outlook. That is just expressing the changeable nature of the weather in this period, and yes there could be some more rainfall opportunities, but like the bogus cyclone off the QLD through the early part of the period, do not believe everything you see in model land over the coming days. Interesting signals none the less.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 2 Weeks

The moisture content is interesting, and it could easily be a more productive system emerging next week in terms of rainfall across the nation from northwest to southeast so watch this space. Discount the cyclone off QLD for now. Medium term showing much more rainfall opportunities if this moisture prognostic verifies.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days - VERY LOW CHANCE

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days - LOW CHANCE

Splitting the difference with the Euro and GFS tonight, it sees the impact of the positive SAM phase and amplifies rainfall over the east coast. Has a weak convergence zone, not a tropical system, over the northern Cape York and another rainfall event mid next week from WA into SA. Lots to watch.

00Z Euro - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days - MODERATE CHANCE

Doesn't amplify the rainfall in the east as much with the positive SAM but what the Euro is doing is focussing more energy into the trough and rainfall potential over the south and southeast with a stalled out cloud band which could bring multiple days of rainfall through Monday to about Thursday next week if the ridge allows. As mentioned in the video, no cyclone over the northern tropics but heavy rainfall still possible this Easter.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

A closer look in - ignore the cyclone over the north I do think there will be heavy rainfall but associated with convergence more than a late season cyclone. Inland rainfall highly conditional on the medium term system verifying. Otherwise many areas dry for a while.

I will have more from 8am EST on Thursday and tomorrow I am travelling and it will be a holiday schedule. I can see not many people are around at the moment as well which is good so no update tonight either. Gives me a chance to take a breath. More tomorrow.

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