QLD - CLIMATE OUTLOOK FOR APRIL TO JUNE 2022

This is a dedicated video and outlook to see what is happening through QLD through the coming 3 months ahead.


Lets get straight into it and see the areas of interest as we work through the remainder of Autumn and come into Winter.


Does the north get into the dry season on time this year or is the wet going to keep on keeping on?

FORECAST

%chance of exceeding or not exceeding the median rainfall for April to June 2022

The wet signal continues for the east and over the tropical north of the state with the lingering wet season, all of this courtesy of the slow waning of the La Nina in the Pacific Ocean. The bias for wet weather clearly the further east that you are situated through the state. The drier bias the further west you go through the state. This is in part to the gradual northward progression of the sub tropical ridge through the back half of this period and this is where we see the long dry cooler season getting underway. The major issues related to rainfall will be connected to the east coast and the potential for severe weather events to emerge in the presence of east coast lows. For the north, the severe weather risks will be related to the flooding risk in the presence of late season tropical activity. Both of these risks running high through April and into early May before we see the risks reduce somewhat into the back half of May into June. Finally, the inland areas of QLD may be looking at a relatively seasonal outlook in terms of rainfall but late season cyclone activity, especially in the come 1-2 weeks can override the drier bias if the systems weaken from the Gulf and spread southwards through western and central QLD. While this is most rare in terms of analogue data, it is not impossible.

%chance of exceeding of not exceeding the median temperatures for April to June 2022

Temperatures continue to follow the similar routine of cooler bias in the east with the persistent onshore winds and wetter conditions leading to more cloud cover and a lack of sunshine. That will translate to warmer and more humid nights however despite the gloomy cooler conditions, especially throughout April and into early May. Once we see more westerly winds over the south and west of the state, this will allow for the skies to clear and for temperatures to resume seasonal to above seasonal values for the back half of the period. Over the northern tropics (more can be found on tropical weather for the 3 months in the tropical based outlook) warmer than normal conditions overall but this is largely conditional and based the lingering wet season and elevated SSTs, which carries a moderate to high confidence forecast.

Key Points

Refer to video for further information

To get the most out of these Climate Outlooks, it is good to follow the daily short and medium term forecasts. Also I do update the Climate Outlooks 2-3 times a week in 6 week outlooks and once every 1-2 weeks I will do seasonal outlooks as well. So these forecasts do get tweaked often.


If you need more tailored forecasting, please get in touch at karllijnders@weathermatters.org - I have a few spaces free for those who are needing some more advice and I can quote according to your needs.

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