A day's break of the wet weather through much of the state on Wednesday with a trough lifting off the east coast tonight and a drier airmass is expected to dominate for much of the state on Wednesday leading to clear skies and light winds. Over the northern tropics, a few morning and evening showers are possible but they will be hard to find.

Thursday, a trough moving through NSW will be rolling through southern and central parts of the state and will be the focus of shower and thunderstorm development, some of those locally severe over the Downs and the SEQ inland. All modes of severe weather is possible with even the risk of one or two tornadoes.

Friday another batch of showers and thunderstorms are expected to form along the coastal districts from the Capricornia through to the NSW border with all modes of severe weather possible, the risk of giant hail and tornado activity shifts through the Wide Bay and Burnett.

Drier weather for the weekend and a run of below average temperatures as a dry westerly flow develops as a low winds up over the southeast.

The north and west turns hotter and more humid from next week with the rainfall coverage increasing over the tropics and then across inland areas of the state as a new trough forms mid next week.

Lets take a look

Rainfall Next 10 days

The lingering rainfall and a few storms along the coast will clear tonight with a drier Wednesday on the way for most of the state, there could be a few showers over the northern tropics. Thursday and Friday offer the next round of rainfall for the state, in the form of showers and locally severe thunderstorms. Some of the storms could pack an absolute whollop so stay tuned to warnings and guidance through the coming 24-48hrs. The rainfall distribution, uneven and some areas in the orange zones could see 50mm in an hour, your number WILL vary. The drier weather returns from the weekend and most of the weekend into early next week away from the tropics remain dry and settled. A new trough over the inland may spark some showers and thunderstorms from this time next week over the western and central inland as the tropics become more active.


00z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 Days

The main feature is most certainly the low pressure system passing through the south and southeast this week with a leading trough leading to severe and even violent weather potential Thursday and Friday for NSW and QLD. The peak of the weather in terms of storms is Thursday. Rain heavy at times over VIC could lead to areas of flooding over southern areas, mainly east of Melbourne and West Gippsland. South Australia likely to see a decent amount of showery weather Thursday with gales as the low passes over. The west is warm and dry and the north is under the influence of deep moisture with scattered showers and afternoon thunderstorms. From Sunday the weather over the nation turns quiet with all low pressure moving away and upper high pressure taking over. The west is where the action will be next week with a band of rain and strong winds along an unusual strong cold front and trough passing by. That system will help to lift temperatures well above average across the south and east.

00z Euro Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 10 Days

No real change from this morning with a deep moisture supply lifting off the east coast but some being left behind ahead the next system coming into SA helping to produce widespread showers and thunderstorms. The weather over SA and VIC turning colder and the airmass drier with a southwest to southerly flow wrapping into the low bringing in cold air from the Southern Ocean. The weather over in the west warm and dry before the next large moisture infeed from the Indian Ocean which is expected to bring above average rainfall. The northern tropics humid and trending even more humid next week with an upper high suppressing rainfall for a period.

00z Euro Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

Refer to video for more information on rainfall.

A closer look in.

00z GFS Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

Refer to video for more details on rainfall

I will have a full wrap on the models and rainfall tonight after 9pm EDT. It is a significant risk of severe weather over vulnerable crops during Thursday. Remain weather aware in the east. But pay attention into the WA weather because that warmth is heading east next week.

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