QLD - BENIGN WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE INLAND - THOUGH THE TROPICS WAKE UP THIS WEEKEND.

After a nice dry pop of air passing through with a southerly wind in recent days, the high pressure system has now begun to settle in over the region leading to clear skies, light winds and trapping that dry airmass in place for a good portion of this week into the weekend.


During the weekend, the showers are likely to increase over Cape York via trade winds and a trough nearby lifting the rainfall totals a tad into next week.


Humidity from this region may seep southwards at the end of the run. Also keeping an eye on hints of potential rainfall over NSW early to mid next week, with some modelling projecting a low forming in the region, but the risk remains low as outlined this morning.


ANALYSIS

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FORECAST


Rainfall for the next 10 days

If you are living inland, I wish I could draw in more colour for you today, but sadly the signals are not quite there, YET, for rainfall to return, however there could be falls developing from mid month onwards, just outside of this forecast window here. Moisture from the tropics and via the onshore winds will eventually be lifted into areas of rainfall with showers and thunderstorms a risk over inland areas from later this month too, in line with the seasonal shift. Will keep watch.

Rainfall Anomalies Next 2 weeks

Temperature Anomalies This Week - September 7-14 2021

Temperature Anomalies Following Week - September 15-22 2021

DATA

00Z GFS Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 10 days

You can compare with the GFS to see they are in full agreement until the weekend with the weather diverging on modelling, especially in the east. The GFS passes through the cold front with a blast of showery wintry weather for the southeast as an open wave with no low pressure, allowing the weather to be more mobile throughout the outlook period. Not much rainfall expected for inland areas under this guidance. It does have good rainfall in the short term for the SWLD of WA with a front passing over during Thursday but sliding off to the southeast with no impact for SA and the southeast states until a follow up front arrives during the weekend, that is the system with very poor guidance across all modelling at the moment.

00Z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 10 days

Comparing to the GFS the weather is well modelled until Friday and Saturday with the system rotating through the southeast with a decent cold outbreak with showery weather for the southeast while the west turns back to dry. Then the system is expected to develop into a low pressure system, this time more offshore the coast, hence less rainfall for inland areas of the east, as expected. The volatility in the modelling will continue. For the remainder of the nation, rather settled under a continuous belt of high pressure and dry air. The weather over the north will turn humid with showers returning to the northern NT and QLD.

00z Euro Rainfall for the coming 10 days

Not much for areas away from the coastline with onshore winds driving showers up through the northern parts of the QLD coast with a few moderate to heavy falls possible in the medium term in the usual spots. The northern tropics inland of the coast may see a few showers and thunderstorms later in the outlook, otherwise the inland is quiet, under high pressure for now, but the forecast confidence is rather low as we track beyond Sunday.

00z Euro Precipitable Water Anomalies next 10 days

The battle between the drier air and the moisture over the north and east will continue for the coming 10 days, though it will be just outside of this window that the moisture deepens across the nation with a more favourable pressure pattern developing with high pressure pushing further south.

I will have a look at the modelling from the full suite this evening after 9pm.


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