A few showers rolling up the QLD coast today as a southeasterly surge moves further north bring a burst of light to moderate rainfall and an increase in humidity for the eastern third of the state. Overnight we have seen light falls about the southeast. The highest fall of 30mm about the Border Ranges.

Rainfall observed during the past 22hrs.

The warm to hot weather is expected to redevelop for the inland areas with a northwest to westerly flow dragging in dry and warm air again from the central interior. The weather is quite normal for this time of year, this happens in some years and it is nothing to be too concerned about at this time.

Temperature anomalies for Wednesday and Thursday.

Note the temperatures up to 12C above normal once again over southern QLD placing some areas at about 30-33C once again over the southern downs and central inland.

Remember the rule, the warmer the air, the more moisture it can hold when the moisture builds up in the coming weeks, so the fact the air is getting warmer is not always a bad sign, we just need the rainfall.

Relatively dry for the inland for this week, with the showers staying active along the coast, with a southeasterly surge working it's way up the coast from the southeast. The falls relatively light but the falls up over the FNQ coast could be productive.

Another burst of rainfall is expected to move through NSW mid week, however the bulk of the rainfall likely to stay south for mid week. A milder airmass is expected to move through the southern inland later this week as a stalled surface boundary.

That stalled boundary might see the moisture hang up just north of the QLD border and this could be an area of showers throughout the weekend. That is an element to watch this week.

Showers return to the east coast with the moisture and easterly winds returning and that should be a more productive shower event for the east coast.

Medium term model madness continues.

12Z GFS Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 16 days

The pressure pattern is unchanged still from last night which is good for consistent forecasting this week. Rainfall numbers have come up over the southwest this morning with a front passing through, that front will spread over the southern coastline this week with the front losing it's moisture so light falls for SA, but as it comes through VIC and NSW, the moisture is deeper thanks to easterly winds and showers likely to increase. A thunderstorm or two also likely ahead of that system. Now the temperatures this week are what you expect in early spring, with mild to warm weather over the eastern inland ahead of that front. Behind the front, the weather is not as cold, with the colder air staying further south. That will mean temperatures staying seasonal to above seasonal through the coming week into the weekend. The medium term showing that upper trough over the eastern inland with a few showers and thunderstorms. Showers return to the east coast. And you can track that large scale system over the west coast coming through SA into the southeast during the middle stages of the month. Moisture also deep across the eastern and northern inland of the nation.

12z GFS Rainfall for the coming 16 days

The most productive rainfall for the period is clearly the mid week feature that lifts moisture through the east and brings a band of rain. Some of that rainfall could be heavy IF GFS is correct. Lighter falls west of the divide and over the northern tablelands. The weather dries out inland with showers developing the weekend for the coast. The weather may turn thundery over the inland with an upper trough wafting around. The medium term showing that more vigorous weather coming in from the west and north of the nation. But this will continue to chop and change. More on the medium term later this morning.

12z GFS Precipitable Water Anomalies next 16 days

This continues to show the moisture rotating around a high pressure system and being drawn south and west through the eastern inland ahead of a front. That front continues to show modest moisture along it's axis, though it is a narrow area of elevated PW values so the rainfall patchy on the front over SA this week. When the front comes into VIC and NSW, the rainfall will likely become more widespread. Over the north and east of the nation, the moisture continues to build as easterly winds dominate for the period. This will lead to elevated rainfall chances for inland areas of the east and north in the medium term but again there won't be much clarity until later this week. Most modelling in the past 24 hours have had large rainfall events all over the board, but the one element that has not changed on the GFS has been the widespread moisture available in the mid to late month period.

12z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 10 days

The Euro in good agreement with the cold front passing through the southern and eastern parts of the nation mid week being the main focus of the rainfall this period. The weather is expected to be dominated for the most part by high pressure for the coming 10 days. Now the Euro, is still out on it's own suggesting high pressure keeping the nation dry but the larger data set from the same model shows a wetter period coming up in the medium term. So will just have to be patient this week to see how the weather evolves in the coming few weeks as it is becoming more spring like earlier this year which the modelling absolutely cannot cope with.

12z Euro Rainfall for the coming 10 days

Most productive rainfall is expected mid week along that front passing through from SA through VIC into NSW. The weather clearing later this week over the inland, the showers will then return to the east coast with onshore easterly winds. But the better coverage of showers is expected through the northern coast into QLD if the Euro is correct. The weather then turns quiet for the remainder of the outlook if this is correct.

12z Euro Precipitable Water Values next 10 days

Still suggesting that the heavy moisture signal that was being modelled during mid month is now expected to stay up over the tropics and dry air overruns the nation with high pressure dominating. I am not so sure on that. I am still siding with the moisture being the dominant feature mid to late month, regardless if there is no low pressure system lifting the moisture, I still expect it to be there more than dry air dominating. Models are bias to a moist and unstable nation mid to late month.

Rainfall for the next 10 days

Rainfall along the east coast continues to roll up the QLD coast with a southeasterly surge. The showers expected to decrease from mid week as the flow relaxes and turns northwesterly for a period with a warmer shift Thursday. Then another southeast to easterly change expected to move up the coast and extend inland with the boundary stalling by the weekend and this could be the focus of showers and a few storms this weekend for southern and central QLD. We have to watch trends this week as it could surprise. Otherwise the tropics becoming very humid and now starting to see the rainfall numbers pick up for the tropics which may play out well for the remainder of QLD mid to late month.

More weather details to come with a much deeper dive into the data for the medium term. This week I will have the climate update for September plus my series on the severe weather season outlook for 2021/22 and the wet season outlook for 2021/22. All important information for spring and summer.

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