QLD - BECOMING UNSETTLED WITH STRONG STORMS BACK FROM MONDAY FOR THE EAST.

The storm season is starting to crank now as expected with the risk of severe thunderstorms back on the forecast packages tonight. Thunderstorms will be scattered about the eastern coast and adjacent inland with a trough in the region, feeding off the onshore winds to produce the unsettled weather.


The storms will continue to be around until about mid week, before the weather clears the east. Another trough later in the week into the weekend from SA may spark up another batch of storms for southern and eastern districts once again.


The tropics are getting unbearable at the moment, with showers mainly coastal during the early morning and late night. Afternoon thunderstorms floating about the Atherton Tablelands this week with moderate falls about. The high humidity may begin to shift further southwest and west through the state.


Lets take a look

Rainfall for the next 10 days

The uneven distribution of rainfall is expected to continue for the period, as per the QLD norm for spring and summer. No well defined rainfall event is anticipated at this time, so if you are looking for rainfall you will have to rely on the thunderstorm activity that forms over inland areas off and on this week. The Central West and Northwest may be mostly dry for the coming week but that may change from the weekend as the moisture seeps south. The tropics will see scattered showers and a few thunderstorms inland over Cape York through to the Atherton Tablelands. The seasonal shift to the warmer phase of spring is underway this week.

Thunderstorm Forecast Monday

Scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms are expected during Monday with some of these tapping into reasonable dynamic support aloft to produce isolated pockets of severe weather over the southeast inland of QLD. All modes of severe weather are possible but the highest risk is damaging winds and heavy rainfall that may lead to flash flooding. Large hail is a lower risk at this time. The storms will weaken as they approach the coast at this time, but watch radar trends!

Flash Flood Risk Monday

Flash flooding is a low to moderate chance with strong to severe thunderstorms that form over the hinterland during the afternoon and evening, some of these may make the coast later in the day, but should be in the phase of weakening and more likely back through SE QLD than northeast NSW.

Damaging Winds Risk Monday

Strong gusty winds are possible with thunderstorms over inland parts of the southeast of QLD. Some of the storms are expected to be severe with wind gusts of 100km/h possible.

Large Hail Risk - Monday

A low risk of large hail over the hinterland during the afternoon and evening but the main risks tomorrow are heavy rainfall and gusty winds. No tornado risk at this stage.

DATA


Euro 00z - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 days

Things are settling down from this week over the interior which will extend into western parts of NSW and most of SA with an upper high setting up camp. We are seeing a strong low pressure system and cold front coming into SWLD of WA which will drive a large rainband over the state during Tuesday with that system running into a blocking pattern in the east mid week. That blocking pattern will set up camp from tomorrow with scattered showers and thunderstorms on the trough passing in from the west and then sitting offshore during mid week. That trough may form into a low bringing coastal showers and thunder through mid week. Then the remnants of the trough will pass from SA in dry fashion and hit moisture over the east during later this week with another round of showers and thunderstorms developing for NSW and QLD. The north is expected to be unsettled with widespread showers and thunderstorms with moderate to heavy falls. That moisture will slowly seep through the west of the nation on the western face of the upper high over SA keeping the moisture over WA with storms developing.

Euro 00z - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 10 days

The moisture is expected to deepen over western parts of the nation with a strong cold front passing through from the Indian Ocean with a deep moisture supply. The moisture is expected to thin out as we track the system through the BIght and into the southeast, unfortunately you can see the block in the Tasman Sea deflecting the moisture south of the mainland. Over the east and north, deeper moisture will pool as the trades return and the tropical northeast to easterly flow establishes. The weather over the west will also become more humid as the moisture travels west and into the southwest of the state through next week. You can pick up the upper high over SA ingesting the dry air from the Tasman Sea as the low pressure that forms later this week moves off to NZ leaving a mild and dry airmass under the high keeping the eastern inland quiet for now.

Euro 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

As expected, you can track the dry slot over inland SA and western NSW as the upper high sits over the eastern inland with not much rainfall expected. The coastal areas of northern and eastern Australia will see the bulk of the rainfall from showers and thunderstorms. The bigger rainfall event is over the southwest of the nation with a strong cold front and low pressure system drawing in a deep moisture load into a cold front, producing the most widespread rainfall. Otherwise the rainfall will return to the southeast and eastern inland of the nation towards the end of the month.

A closer look in.

GFS 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 days

Refer to video for more at the top of the page.

More details to come tomorrow morning from 7am.

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