A heads up for the next round of nasty storm activity approaching the state from Friday. But before then, we have got another relatively fine and settled day across the state. However by the afternoon a batch of high based showers and thunderstorms will begin to move in from the NT and SA. Some of the storms could be gusty like the activity that is moving into the far southwest tonight, but unlikely to be severe just yet, with the main dynamics way to the south.

Where the atmosphere becomes more favourable for severe weather is Friday. The trough over SA deepens tomorrow and moves into NSW and then snaps off the low pressure system moving away from VIC. This parcel of unstable air will run into moisture over the southeast and south of QLD with a fairly decent day of thunderstorms.

All modes of severe weather are possible on Friday.

The trough stalls out during Saturday and once again, showers and thunderstorms will continue with some of the storms may turn severe with all modes of severe weather.

The trough then weakens a little on Sunday, but the winds along the coast will begin to turn easterly, so showers will return to coastal areas, which may be moderate about parts of the southeast QLD coast and up along the FNQ coast.

Next week, moisture is deepening and another trough is expected to form with a return to more showers and thunderstorms across much of the state.

Lets take a look


Rainfall Next 10 days

Rainfall again uneven in distribution with scattered showers and thunderstorms, but where storms do hit, 50-100mm is possible in a sitting, as we have seen most of this month. The falls will be more widespread on Saturday. Another round of showers and thunderstorms next week with a new trough and a deeper moisture profile means that more heavy falls are possible through southern, central and eastern areas of QLD. The trough may persist for a number of days through the outlook. The tropics, isolated showers and thunderstorms with an upper high parking itself over the region throughout the outlook suppressing rainfall.

Thunderstorm Forecast Thursday

Thunderstorms will be extending from the SA through the NT and will pass over the border tonight before weakening by dawn. Further scattered mid level showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop about the southwest and western areas. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop throughout the central and southern inland. No severe weather expected, but the west could see damaging winds later in the day.

Damaging Winds Risk Thursday

A low end threat coming across the border from the NT with organised thunderstorms activity is later in the day.


Euro 00z - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 days

The pressure pattern remains volatile and energetic at the moment with all the ingredients there for a disruptive spell of weather for those of you on the land from WA through to QLD and NSW. The SWLD has already received record rainfall for October (Perth surpassing it's record by nearly 30mm with rain still falling). The IOD is playing a part in all the moisture and thunderstorm impacts we have observed in recent weeks and that will persist for the next 4-6 weeks. So for those of you who have bought a few days of drier weather, which may persist into next week, make the most of it. These periods of drier weather with become hard to find as we run into the Christmas period based off all the data that I have shared in recent days and this morning and you can see in the data sets below that this is well supported. The system in the short term that has a high impact is the low pressure system that forms off SA tomorrow and moves close to if not over the SE of SA and Western VIC. Severe weather is a risk with damaging winds and heavy rainfall near that system, and whether that comes over land or stays offshore remains to be seen. The trough that accompanies this system will spark another round of severe thunderstorms on Friday and Saturday for NSW and QLD, with damaging weather once again possible for northern NSW and southeast QLD Friday into Saturday. So be weather aware. Large to giant hail and destructive winds are possible with that feature, more on that tomorrow. The next system coming in from SA next week comes with high humidity which may linger for 5-10 days into the medium term creating headaches for farmers with crops in the ground with higher rainfall chances and the risk of fungal issues. That signal has remained steady for recent days.

Euro 00z - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 10 days

No change from this morning and you can see the difference in the GFS in the video and the impacts that the variation in the postiion of low pressure systems has on rainfall and storm distribution. This will continue to be tricky to pin down under current circumstances (need more real time data to feed into the modelling - planes need to be back in the air!) But note next week how the dam wall breaks, the high moves out the way and the moisture surges south throughout the nation. Values are up to 300% of normal which is exceptional!

Euro 00z - Precipitable Values - Next 10 days

The warm shades of yellow and green is sufficient for extensive rainfall and thunderstorm activity throughout the southern parts of the nation. But to have values topping the red shading (60mm+) suggests that robust rainfall potential remains high into November and this won't be restricted to the tropics, but it will make it through the subtropics and into the southern and eastern parts of Australia. So be aware - if you have sensitive crops and plants. It is going to be bloody humid and feel a lot different to what it is right now through southeast and eastern inland areas where dry air has dominated this week.

Euro 00z - Rainfall Accumulation Next 10 days

It remains low confidence and really with the system coming through the southeast tomorrow, it may be a case of nowcasting rainfall totals, all dependent upon where the low pressure decides to travel. Thunderstorms elsewhere will bring uneven distribution of rainfall and that will be the case for much of the nation with no real organised rainfall event. We have another storm event to move into SA this time next week and the VIC, NSW and QLD later next week. That system will be slower moving than this feature and as I said above, tapping into higher moisture levels. For the west, you will see much drier weather with ridging. The tropics, most areas atleast seeing 20mm in the coming week, but many seeing much more!

A closer look in.

GFS 00z - Rainfall Accumulation Next 16 days

Refer to video for more

CMC 00z - Rainfall Accumulation Next 10 days

Refer to video for more

More details coming up on all things rainfall from 9pm EDT. Make sure you are logged in and can come back to the blog page for when that updates.

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