QLD - BECOMING DRIER AND COOLER OVER THE INLAND, MAYBE RAIN IN THE WEST

The weather is representing a much more typical late Autumn and early Winter pattern, with the passage of the first cold front of substance over the southeast in recent days leading to a showery mess south of us, but the northern aspect of that system has delivered us a taste of that drier weather we usually experience from about the end of April.

While it is later this year, the drier spell may be short lived with the Indian Ocean becoming more energetic and providing the jet stream with more moisture, we can see evidence of that with the persistent cloud bands forecast over WA.

One of these cloud bands may begin to approach, even though in weakening fashion, from mid-week with patchy rainfall possibly developing over the Channel Country from Thursday with the risk of this cloud mass and little rain areas running all the way through the Downs and Granite Belt through to the SE QLD coast.

Overall, the remainder of the state looking more seasonal for now, but watch that moisture running across the jet stream and into the eastern interior.

Let’s see what impacts that moisture may have in the short and medium term.

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

It has been a nice dry weekend for many in QLD with thickening high cloud on my departure yesterday with a jet stream cloud band on the develop. There is the chance of patchy light rainfall within this cloud mass over the coming days for the southern and southwest interior, but for now I am only drawing in a modest amount of moderate rainfall for the state. With that said, the drier period that we were looking at is not as long duration, given the amount of cloud and rainfall forecast to spread through this week and possibly again over the weekend and into next week with frontal weather passing to the south of the state. There is the issue of timing of the moisture in relation to the movement of this system, and for now it remains low confidence. We must await to see what the current cold outbreak does over the southeast states by Wednesday and by then, we should know more and have a clearer idea about the outcome of the rainfall chances across the state.

The rainfall is more widespread over NSW and the ongoing rainfall will clear east tonight through there, not much is forecast to get to our region with that feature. But watching the follow up attempts at rain bands this weekend and possibly next week which could bring back light to moderate rainfall throughout the region, your numbers will continue to chop and change. Better guidance on that will come from later this week I suspect.

Severe Weather Watch - Damaging Winds

Damaging winds have already been observed Sunday and today with that very tight pressure gradient leading too strong to gale force wind gusts on and with a front moving through NSW expected to move further east on Monday. A strong cold front to follow up the low-pressure system could also produce strong squalls with showers and thunderstorms on Monday night and into Tuesday morning. Conditions should ease from the west on Tuesday.

Farmers and Graziers

We are already experiencing the major airmass change through the coming week, with cold and wet conditions and high wind chill developing over thre southeast overnight and into this morning. Only 5C about the Tablelands in NSW and VIC with windy weather and rainfall underway. Conditions peak on Tuesday before the weather warms somewhat on Wednesday and the winds ease.

Frost Risk Mid-Week

The cold air is forecast to be trapped under a weak ridge mid week, and as skies clear and winds drop out, there is an elevated risk of frost forming, especially about elevated terrain and away from the coast. Some of the frost could be severe in and around the ACT and southeast NSW, extending into northeast VIC.

MEDIUM TERM

June 6th-13th 2022

Rainfall Anomalies

Rainfall anomalies through this period largely unchanged, the moisture over the northern tropics is of great interest to me where we could see more above average moisture content. But as mentioned, this rainfall over this part of the world is going to show up as green on this chart, as this area should be dry. Mostly seasonal rainfall expectations elsewhere but the confidence is not especially high right now. Will have to see what that moisture does over the northwest and whether it comes southeast with any northward approaching frontal feature.

Temperature Anomalies

The cooler signal remains in place and relates to the cloud cover running through the nation and the colder air left over from the dual cold outbreaks taking a while to clear the country's interior. But the day time temperatures will be below average where the night time may move above the average. The overall pattern is connected to the developing IOD and the ongoing negative SAM phase.

DATA - Refer to the video for further information and it is critical to keep check of the data sets to understand where the next major weather events are emerging from outside of this period. It may be quiet now but I am all about preparation and ensuring that information is shared with you as soon as it is available.


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

I have more to say in the video but be aware that the forecasts will keep jumping around nationally. The cold outbreak should be on the way out tomorrow night and a drier pattern establishes across the inland and southeast for a period. But it does not look to last as more moisture runs through the northwest of the nation through Central Australia and into the southeast states. Some of this could be caught up into the westerly wind belt and further rain could develop this weekend but it is not clear yet on how that looks with the current system needing to be off the board before I can be specific about this. Over the north and northwest, the weather is forecast to turn humid and more unsettled with that moisture possibly moving south and southeast throughout the country, but once again how that looks is up in the air, so another day before we get better guidance.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks

The moisture values are coming down through the south and southeast as the dry southwest to southerly flow develops behind the large mass of rain in the southeast and east tonight. Drier air extends back over the southwest and west of the nation where high pressure is ridging through. Another pulse of tropical moisture is expected to sweep in from the Indian Ocean and race into the jet stream, spreading widespread cloud and potential rain across the nation. Some of this moisture may be swept into the cold fronts trying to approach the southeast but the timing is all over the shop. The pattern is of low confidence and will have consequences across the nation.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z Euro - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

A closer look in - this forecast is changing erratically, and I will continue to add that the forecast confidence remains low beyond this current event over the southeast.

More coming up from 8pm EST with a look at the models and rainfall.


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