QLD - BECOMING COOLER FROM THE SOUTH WITH HUMIDITY BUILDING ALONG THE COAST

And a few showers from today for the SEQ coast.


A stalled boundary left over from the front that passed through NSW is expected to inch north over the coming days. A southeast to easterly flow which is light, will just add enough moisture into the air to produce showers for parts of the coast.


The showers may develop over the adjacent inland with light falls expected, but the showers are expected to be mainly isolated.


The weather will dry out in the new week with a dry surge following the front pushing over the southeast Sunday into Monday. That will see conditions clear, which is a new addition to modelling in recent days.


Mid next week, the weather will begin to warm up with a northwest flow developing. The weather becoming more humid over the northern parts of the nation and this will start to feed southeast ahead of the next major change expected at the end of next week.


The weekend may turn thundery for parts of the inland.


12Z GFS Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 16 days

The pressure pattern is being dominated by high pressure now, that resulted in the benign forecasts for most of the nation during the coming 5-6 days. The next change of interest is coming in by about Thursday next week with perhaps a few showers and storms spreading across southern Australia, the temperatures expected to be above average ahead of that front. Another stronger front is expected to sweep through WA this time next week and that system, which has had multiple looks, has the potential to bring widespread rainfall for the southeast and eastern inland of the nation. This morning it has dropped some of that rainfall, last night it had a major system. It will become clearer by early next week which way it goes.

12z GFS Rainfall for the coming 10 days

Rainfall non existent for the inland until about this time next week with a stronger system approaching from the west, more likely to bring rainfall chances up from next Friday, but more likely over the weekend. There may be a weaker system pass through the southeast during later this weekend into Monday with showers and drizzle for southern VIC and western TAS, but most of that staying coastal, otherwise for many, a dry week on the way over the east.

12z GFS Precipitable Water Anomalies next 16 days

The PW values look relatively unchanged from last night, the elements to watch is to see whether the fronts are in phase with the moisture as it drifts southeast and south from the nation. At this stage some of the moisture is drawn south into these fronts, but more likely to happen later next week into weekend. In the short term, modest moisture near a weak boundary will bring showers to the east coast, and you can see the deeper moisture over the northern parts of the QLD coast. That will sweep the north of the nation increasing humidity values. More moisture builds up over the northern parts of the nation through the medium term and that will likely contribute to a damp start to September for many areas of the nation.

12z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 10 days

The pressure pattern unchanged from last night, and is still inconsistent in the 5-10 day forecast window. So that forecast remains low for most of the nation, but the signals are continuing to support low pressure returning later this week into the weekend as per most other global models. So now we watch how strong those systems are as they move west to east over the south. Showers for the east coast in the short term and a few showers developing for the north of the nation with humidity rising.

12z Euro Rainfall for the coming 10 days

Rainfall lean for most inland areas of the nation with the weather trending warmer and drier as the high pressure consolidates over the southern and central parts of the nation. You can see the frontal weather returns for the west of the nation mid next week and that starts the process of introducing rainfall chances for the nation later next week. Otherwise in the short term we have easterly winds driving showers for the QLD coast for most of the week ahead, mainly north of Hervey Bay. Moisture may kick off a few showers over the northern tropics.

12z Euro Precipitable Water Values next 10 days

The values have gone from wetter last night, as the systems were in phase, the drier this morning, with the systems out of phase and the moisture staying over the north and northwest, waiting for a system to time itself properly. With the inconsistency, the weather forecasts are remaining low, but the signal for moisture increasing over the northwest and north seems fair, the Euro is just expressing the uncertainty, which we covered off yesterday in the 2 week forecast.

Rainfall for the next 10 days

Rainfall is lean for vast areas of the nation which is in line with the pattern shift. The weather will trend more humid and showery along the northern parts of the coastline with lighter falls further south. The weather will turn more humid over the inland but the weather suppressed by the high pressure across the nation. The weather is likely to turn wetter towards the end of the month and as we head into September. Which is in line with climatological expectations.

I will have a climate update today for the remainder of August and perhaps a peek back into September. Then I will take a look at the Wet Season for 2021/22 plus the last in the series of the Severe Weather Season Outlook 2021/22.

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